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Scottish house prices fall for first time as slowdown bites



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Published Date: 13 May 2008
HOUSE prices in Scotland fell for the first time last month as the slowdown in the UK housing market continues apace.
New figures out today showed the proportion of surveyors across the country reporting a fall in property price rose for the ninth month in a row.

In previous surveys by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), Scotland had been the onl
y part of the Britain not to see falling prices, but it has now fallen into line with the rest of the UK.

The latest RICS survey showed that 95 per cent more surveyors nationwide saw house prices fall than rise in April, up from 79 per cent in March, but the study found that a tight supply of properties on the market has limited the extent of the price falls so far, with no sign of the "distress" sales seen in the 1990s house price crash.

The average number of unsold stocks of properties on surveyors' books edged down, with the ratio of completed sales compared with unsold stock falling from 25 per cent in March to 21 per cent last month.

RICS said: "The scale of house price falls remains relatively small at this stage compared to past downturns.

"The lack of new instructions to sell property continues to provide a crutch to the market.

"Large numbers of distress sales – either repossessions or sales from those attempting to avoid the repossession process – have not yet appeared in the market place and, while mortgage arrears remain low and the employment situation remains strong, the lack of supply will continue to prevent large declines."

According to Nationwide, the average house price in Scotland last month was £148,336, down from £151,178 in December.

The credit crunch is also continuing to make it difficult for new buyers to secure financing, with 68 per cent more surveyors noting a fall than a rise in new buyer enquiries, up from 51 per cent in January.

RICS spokesman Ian Perry said: "The real issue is the collapse in the number of housing transactions. This has very real implications, not just for the property industry but also the high street and the wider economy."

The Government was at pains to point out that the current situation was very different from the housing crisis that affected Britain in the early 1990s.

A spokesman said: "When looking at trends in the market, it is important to remember that UK house prices are 45.5 per cent higher than five years ago.

"The current issue affecting the market is fundamentally about the supply of credit – a very different situation to the early 1990s which was about high interest rates and unemployment.

"The long-term demand for housing remains high and the fundamentals of the economy are sound with low unemployment and historically low interest rates."

MINISTER WARNS OF SLIDING PROPERTY MARKET

THE Government's private fears over the dire state of the UK property market were laid bare today.

Housing Minister Caroline Flint warned the Cabinet that "at best" prices are set to fall by five per cent to ten per cent this year.

She also briefed colleagues that housebuilding was "stalling", adding starkly: "We can't know how bad it will get."

The bleak assessment emerged when Ms Flint carelessly exposed a sheet of typed notes to photographers as she entered Number 10 for the weekly Cabinet session.

The document, headed "Caroline Flint – speaking notes", had a sticker attached which said "Papers for Cabinet meeting 13 May 2008".

It pointed out that leading house price indicators were predicting reductions for the first time in recent years.







The full article contains 610 words and appears in Edinburgh Evening News newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

 
1

Vandala,

13/05/2008 11:27:51
"the lack of supply will continue to prevent large declines."

...famous last words.
2

Chris.J,

Edinburgh 13/05/2008 12:23:04
Hasn't this paper been telling us for months that the Scottish market is so unique that we wouldn't see house price falls? Yes...(just look at the property "stories" on the right of the page)
Hasn't this paper been slavishly reprinting any old PR from the city's property companies? Yes...
Were they all talking out of their vested interest backsides? Absolutely.

As for the "lack of supply" myth - speak privately to any estate agent and they'll tell you the truth about the saturation in the 2 bed market, particularly in Leith and Granton.
3

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

, Newington 13/05/2008 12:25:37
"The long-term demand for housing remains high and the fundamentals of the economy are sound with low unemployment and historically low interest rates."

Japanese Credit Crunch, 1989 to Present Day:

Unemployment : less than 6%
Interest Rates: 0% until recently. 0.5% currently
House Prices : Down 50% through down 90%

It's not demand that matters, it's how much people are able or willing to pay.
4

Johnnie Wilkinson,

Edinburgh 13/05/2008 12:32:24
"the fundamentals of the economy are sound with low unemployment and historically low interest rates."

The trouble is that if housing transactions plummet, and houses take longer to sell, estate agents don't earn commission on properties they are not selliing; then they start to lose money and then they start laying off their staff. Estate agent offices start to close (as is already happening down South) and this eventually feeds into higher unemployment in the wider economy. Higher unemployment follows a downturn in the housing market, which in turn makes it even worse and it becomes a downward spiral and vicious circle. Rising unemployment is always a lagging indicator in these situations.
5

Clen Peapus,

Edinburgh 13/05/2008 12:58:04
This article is about Scotland, not specifically Edinburgh. The housing market varies on a very local basis - location, location, location.

Of course, Edinburgh is not immune to the current issues experienced by the wider housing market. However good houses in good areas of Edinburgh are not likely to plummet in value, there will probably continue to be demand for these.

If you want a good, semi-detached family house in Ravelston, for example, you're not going to get it for a bargain basement price.

#2 is absolutely right about the over-provision of "luxury" two bedroom flats along the waterfront area.
6

Johnnie Wilkinson,

Edinburgh 13/05/2008 12:58:15
Mario,

That's exactly what happened to some extent in the recession of the early 90s...it won't plunge us ino the middle ages, but it will make a difference.
7

Chris.J,

Edinburgh 13/05/2008 13:04:11
#7 I agree - location is indeed going to be important - and yes the thing that property people will also privately tell you is to buy into the new town and similar standard if you can. They're even giving it some god awful buzzphrase "flight to quality" or something similar - in short when people buy for themselves they'll buy something decent. When they were buying for investment - which they most definitely are not anymore - they'll buy any old rubbish new-build 2 bed hutch.
8

ccc,

13/05/2008 13:19:08
Ah reality bites. Well done Evening News. You took your time !!

Still the old argument "the study found that a tight supply of properties on the market has limited the extent of the price falls so far" must not apply to Edinburgh.

Have a look at the ESPC front page. Number of properties for sale or rent now at about 9300. Was only at 6300 on March 15th...........

Edinburgh is goosed. End of story. Of course the nicer houses will not see as large falls as some hell hole little flat will.

However they will all be dragged down with this crash, and so they should be.

Houses in Edinburgh at an affordable level. Coming to you in 2012. If all goes as expected....

:)
9

MB,

Edinburgh 13/05/2008 13:19:09
Didn't this newspaper publish articles earlier this month saying that the Scottish market was immune to the economic pressures being experienced in the US, Ireland and England and would therefore not experience house price falls? So that was all just idle speculation and wishful thinking then.

I feel betrayed...
10

Arnie,

Newington 13/05/2008 13:19:40
There are currently 9000 properties available in the ESPC, there are normally 5000 properties available. Thus there is more supply than demand hence property prices will fall.

Please do not buy into the Edinburgh is different argument it just won't wash. At the moment we are like a roller coaster being cranked up to the start of the run and unless things change we are going to go downhill very quickly.
11

antifa,

13/05/2008 13:29:10
Why would Scotland be immune from price reductions? I never understood this line, which seemed to come direct from vested interests to news stories.

After all, the fall in prices is the result of banks unwilling to lend at reasonable rates (without a big deposit, anyway).

It's one single financial services market across the UK so why should the consequences be any different here to south of the border?

The EEN should be ashamed of itself for acting as a conduit for industry press releases.
12

Claire22,

13/05/2008 13:34:48
"If you want a good, semi-detached family house in Ravelston, for example, you're not going to get it for a bargain basement price."

Hmm - I beg to differ:

Today on sale with ESPC:
11 Belford Gardens oo 435

19 Belford Gardens - sold in 2003 for 450
21 Belford Gardens - sold in 2005 for 525

Looks fairly bargain-like to me!
13

Clen Peapus,

Edinburgh 13/05/2008 13:52:06
#14 Ahh, the good old price lookup sites, which give no indication of the size or condition of a property. Not really an ideal basis for direct comparison.

However, if you assume that the seller is looking for 25% over the O/O price that would give a price of £565k. Which doesn't sit too out of line with the values you have quoted there.

It isn't a straight-line increase, but it isn't a reduction. Without knowing about the properties in question it is difficult to say whether one is a "bargain" when compared with another. Particularly as the one you highlight hasn't been sold yet.

Clearly, I have no idea what that house is valued at, what the seller expects for it, or what a buyer would be willing to pay for it in the current market. I made the 25% assumption as an illustration (I'm not saying that is what the seller will get, or that they will even expect that amount).
14

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

, Newington 13/05/2008 14:20:48
Arnie: speaking of rollercoasters, here's house prices displayed as a coaster ride. It's US house prices, so UK prices would have gone even higher at the end of the ride:

www.boreme.com/boreme/funny-2007/real-estate-rollercoaster-p1.php
15

ccc,

13/05/2008 14:25:58
For anyone finding it difficlut to persuade people that Edinburgh WILL NOT be different I have put together the following basic argument, feel free to use as you wish. There really is no come back:

If the following statements were true I would agree Edinburgh would not be looking at serious falls. However.......

Edinburgh does not have a huge reliance on the financial sector.

Edinburgh does not have a huge migrant population ready to leave at the drop of a hat.(They rent out a huge amount of the BTL properties, what happens to their flats when they leave....)

Edinburgh has not seen a huge building programme of flat after flat on every single spare plot of land.

Edinburgh has not seen the same spike and boom in prices that other places have.

Edinburgh does not have property that is vastly over-inflated compared to average salaries.

Edinburgh has not got the same credit and mortgage system as everywhere else
16

Annoyingboi,

Edinburgh 13/05/2008 14:40:04
#10 / 18 Your posts are entirely correct and truthful. we have been spun the usual PR by the Scotsman and EEN for months and now we finally get the truth. Anyone who thinks Edinburgh is immune is living in a dream world
17

Vandala,

13/05/2008 14:51:13
The arguments touted by the EN are exactly the same as those touted by the Irish media this time twelve months ago.

"[insert name of city]will not suffer a housing price crash because of our unique [insert euphemisms] and enviable economy and [moomins] etc.

After months of denial of "falling prices", the next stage will be to replace it with the euphemism "soft landing"; eg. prices will fall but there will not be a crash. Then "soft landing" will be replaced with the phrase "market correction", and estate agents etc. will then argue that the "correction" in fact makes economic conditions favourable to buy.

For real eye-opener, see www.thepropertypin.com

...now if only someone would set up a similar forum in Edinburgh.
18

Johnnie Wilkinson,

Edinburgh 13/05/2008 14:52:03
Mario;

Some knock on effects: effect on DIY stores, removal firms; people buying less furniture items...but enough said.
19

Liz,

Edinburgh 13/05/2008 15:05:55
Surely there is some mistake here?! This newspaper groups publications have been telling us repeatedly and endlessly for months now that Scotland was different to the rest of the UK. Prices here have never fallen before and therefore we were told to mean that they can never fall now.

Still its a good job inflation is so low (!?!) imagine what might happen with rising inflation (and potentially higher interest rates.....)

Besides, I fail to see why falling house prices are consistantly published as being "bad" news and rising prices "good" news. For the majority of the population falling prices could actually be a good thing - it will help people buying their first home and will make 'moving up the ladder' easier too. Too bad for any idiot investors they are the most vunerable but why do we care so much about them. Houses should be viewed as homes for living in, not a way to get rich quick and the Government should have acted years ago to prevent the situation we are in now.
20

,

13/05/2008 15:21:16
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
21

Maizy,

Edinburgh 13/05/2008 15:28:00
I am bewildered about the comment on the lack of transactions in the housing market and downturn in prices. Where I live there are just as many houses for sale as ever there have been and the prices being asked remain as ridiculously high as ever. I just think the press are trying to create a problem where there isn't one.
22

Liz,

Edinburgh 13/05/2008 15:40:24
#25
"the prices being asked remain as ridiculously high as ever"

What is happening will happen regardless of the press. Your own comment should give you a clue of the real reasons for the current problems. Prices are too high and will fall until they are in some way realistic to the potential buyers.
23

parks is colin nish,

cape town 13/05/2008 15:44:02
well well doom and gloom the world is going to end.
As someone who owns 7 houses. I will say this, if you have invested and borrowed wisely you have no need to worry about the market it will fall but it will rise again by the end of next year. if you have 20% deposit you will find a decent mortgage deal. The only people that cant borrow are the ones who should not of been allowed to borrow in the past, hence the rise in repossesions.
Im not bothered about these falls,if they halve then i might start looking .I have not had one gap in renting any property for the last 2 years. I will ride it out no problem. Some people like liz seem bitter about people making money and seems to be a theme on these pages.
as i said before im still waiting to die of aids, bse, birdflu etc etc
24

Geed,

The Real World 13/05/2008 15:48:34
Maizy at 25.

you say you are "bewildered about the comment on the lack of transactions in the housing market". You then go on "Where I live there are just as many houses for sale". Houses for sale do not equal number of transactions.

ccc quite rightly points out that there are over 9300 properties for sale or rent on the ESPC web page, this is compared to 5000 or so this time last year. Wake up!!!!

On this same web site you will find out that Edinburgh is DOWN 8% from peak last year (Q2 07 £227,912 down to Q1 08 £210,123 - more than England and Wales), has Johnstone Press covered this SHOCKING data with the same gusto that it has allowed proerty VI's to spout rhetorical nonsense on its pages?

This crash may be localised to some areas, but do your own research and stop relying on the propaganda in the Scottish media. If you have stretched yourselves, your in trouble, do something about it now.
25

Liz,

Edinburgh 13/05/2008 15:50:54
#26
You are missing the point.
Negative equity will only affect those who have bought in the past few years, for the majority of home 'owners' it will have a positive effect. For those moving up the ladder, falling prices will actually make the jump to the next 'rung' smaller so it will make it all the more achievable.

The crux of the situation is that alot investors are going to loose alot of money and it is them who will squeal the loudest for symapthy that they do not deserve as it is them who are largely responsible for driving prices so high. Now the cheap credit is drying up lets see how good their business models are.

Besides, you know nothing of my financial situation so it is a bit presumtious of you to comment, you need not worry I have plenty of money and assets.
26

Arnie,

Newington 13/05/2008 15:51:31
If you think of the property market as a clock with 12pm being the start of the boom and 6pm being the start of the bust then we currently are at 7.30pm.

Things will continue to get worse until yield turns positive at 9pm.
27

Geed,

The Real World 13/05/2008 15:57:30
29 parks is colin nish;

Then why are you bothering to comment on here? I am all for people who make money for doing something, and I agree, good Landlords are providing a required service. However a lot of people have made a fortune on property in the last few years just by owning it, creating money from nothing, providing nothing to society and producing diddly squat. Not there fault but the banks and the Government for allowing cheap credit.

Cheap credit = House Price Boom
No Cheap Credit = House Price Crash

It has little to do with Supply and Demand, Credit is the key.

Oh and its 25% Deposit for a good deal these days.
28

Geed,

13/05/2008 16:05:22
I think Liz is trying to point out this.

Your home is currently worth £200K and you want to move up to a home that is currently worth £300K. Lets presume the market falls 25%, highly likely, especially if a new build in Leith.

Your current house drops from £200K to £150K, £50K.

Your new home drops from £300K to £225K, £75K.

You may think you have lost £50K but in fact you are ahead £25K as you now only have to find £75K to move up as opposed to £100K prior to the falls.

If you are in negative equity, you are toast no matter what.
29

parks is colin nish,

cape town 13/05/2008 16:07:05
liz
i think YOU miss the point if someone bought 2 years ago the market on ave will still have to drop a long way to hit negative in most sectors. Where people are finished are the muppets that bought overpriced new builds with inflated prices which were never the true values and didnt have a clue what they are doing.
I think this will be a boom time towards the end of year with real property investors not your "sarah beeneys" who will all be bankrupted.
I saw this coming last year when i was trying to buy properties and was losing 120k properties by 20 to 30k because "sarah beeney" were lapping them up without doing a budgets and knowing the resale. I stopped buying. Those properties are now renovated and sellers now cant sell, even if the market hadnt fallen the price was too high because they spent too much. roll on december
30

Liz,

Edinburgh 13/05/2008 16:07:43
#33
Right,
Say I bought a one bedroom flat 5 years ago for £100,000 but the three bedroom house down the road I would really like to buy eventually cost £200,000. That is a difference of £100,000 more equity/mortgage one would need to trade up.

Price rise 50% in the intervening years.

My flat is now worth £150,000 and the three bedroom place £300,000 that is a difference of £150,000 which would be required from equity/mortgage.

Now if prices had risen 100% in the same time the difference rises to a huge £200,000 that would have to be found from somewhere.

Now can you see that such big price rises are actually bad for the majority of people? Using the above example (ok there are huge generelisations here but this is just to give the principle of the thing) the homeowner is far better off if they are 'moving up the ladder' than if price rises are moderate.
31

Liz,

Edinburgh 13/05/2008 16:10:57
#39
Sorry I should have checked better
The last line should read:
"the homeowner is far better off if they are 'moving up the ladder' if price rises are moderate."
32

Maizy,

13/05/2008 16:11:27
# Liz 25 - If you read my comment properly you'd see that I was saying that although the prices are ridiculously high there did not seem to be a change in the market either in the number of houses on the market or in the prices being achieved. Hopefully this will remain the case despite the press scaremongering. I don't think that house prices will fall in the same way we are led to believe they have in England.
33

ccc,

13/05/2008 16:24:44
Maizy..

"I don't think that house prices will fall in the same way we are led to believe they have in England"

Eh, they already are....

:)

Get used to it. We still have about 30-50% in real terms to go.
34

Vandala,

13/05/2008 16:26:22
#38 Who's Sarah Beeney?
35

Geed,

13/05/2008 16:40:08
@ 41 Maizy. I see you are taking the head in the sand approach. "Well the Scotsman says everything is fine, and I believe them like a good little girl". Press scaremnongering! one article from Johnstone Press that is slightly bearish and you accuse them of scaremongering, what about all the other property only ever goes up articles they uslually spit out(see column to the upper right), I suppose you supported that gleefully.

Have you even visited the ESPC web site to verify my 8% DROP figures???? ARE YOU LISTENING, WHOOOOHOOO anyone home my vaccuos little thing? Sorry I dont mean to get personal but you do strike me as someone who only listens to what they want to hear, a dangerous practice.

Sarah Beeney present a property delevelopment program on I think channel 4.
36

Geed,

13/05/2008 16:43:14
Thats "vacuous" folks, which considering my poor typing/spelling, is rather fitting of me at present ;-)
37

Listening,

13/05/2008 17:00:30
Prices have been over-inflated for many years. Most of the property on the market wasn't worth the price it was selling at.

First time buyers can't get in so the impact will go through the property market with sellers unable to sell. This will cause prices to come down even further whilst the interest rates get higher.

If anyone is thinking of buying the best time is when prices are at a low and interest rates at a high, so that will be coming soon.

Prices at a low means that your investment will sharply rise in value when the market recovers. Interest rates at a high because if you can afford to buy with high interest rates then you will see a huge benefit when the interest rate lowers again.

This will create new demand and the market will recover.(hopefully not to the levels it is at present)
38

Vandala,

13/05/2008 17:02:03
#46...that's presuming the market recovers in your life-time.
39

Listening,

13/05/2008 17:10:35
This is a cyclic thing and very little to do with governments etc. It happens on a regular basis.

Historically the market has always recovered after a period of time.

What surprises me is that so many people in the past year or two have insisted that they MUST buy somewhere to live. It was innevitable that this was going to happen and that people were going to suffer.

Also what about all the reposessions going on. Mortgage rates have hardly moved even though we are have a 'credit crunch'. Can you imagine the mess if the interest rate climbs a few percentage points?

I have seen this coming for the past 5 or so years and have spoken about it to many people who said it would never happen.
40

parks is colin nish,

cape town 13/05/2008 18:52:06
sarah beeney and other tv presenters will have caused misery to thousands of muppets who believe that they can/could make a living at property devolping. as someone who has done it for ten years and done well doing it I watch thes programs with horror. One example which i use. a guy in brighton buys a house for 220k renovates it by himself and a mate while spending 70k sells it for 310k and sarah and c4 say how they made a impressive 20k in 7 months. what they dont tell you is he knocked his pan in grafting at nights and weekends with his mate. when you worked out the hrs they did they could of got jobs stacking shelves in tescos at nights and weekends and would of made about the same.
shame on any tv channel that shows this dross anymore
41

Silence of the Yams,

13/05/2008 18:59:44
Bottom line it's all about greed. All these grubby buy to letters are going to feel the pinch first.
42

parks is colin nish,

cape town 13/05/2008 19:09:05
#50 why

you talk utter nonsense, if you have a tenant in place and a regular rent and no need to sell why are you going to feel the pinch.
another muppet who opens their mouth and trys to use the modern buzzwords without having a clue what they are on about.
43

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

, Newington 13/05/2008 20:40:10
#31 Liz: It won't only affect those that bought near the peak. It will also affect those who took cash out through remortgaging, those with second mortgages, and those who have attachment orders against their homes due to other debts.

Unfortunately the bubble has seen all of those categories rising in number.
44

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

, Newington 13/05/2008 20:43:41
#32: Arnie, this isn't the 18 year UK property cycle (though that's a factor) - it's a 3-generational credit cycle. The bubble lasted 25 years (longer than the normal 16-18) and the normal down cycle time is 4 years minimum, but typically 14-18 years.

Last credit cycle burst in 1929. It was after the war before things started to pick up again.
45

Liz,

Edinburgh 14/05/2008 09:37:28
#52
Well remortaging your house based on some percieved measure of 'value' could be argued as not being a very sensible thing to do. I know there will be some who 'had' to remortgage due to circumstances out of their control, but these are a minority. The majority of equity release appears to have been done to finance discresionary spending.

There was never any guarentees that house prices would only ever go up in value - despite what the Government or property programs on the TV say and it was extremely naive of anyone to believe that prices would never drop.
46

Wurg,

Edinburgh 30/05/2008 23:26:39
The average house price can be misleading. The median is a better measure as it is less skewed by shifts in the type of property sold.

Go on Evening News show us median monthly and quarterly data by property type and for all properties.

Regarding the issue of Scotland being different from the rest of the UK. It used to be because it did not "enjoy???" the same level in property inflation. Boom goes with bust and Scotland has joined the English roller coaster ride.


 

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