Help Sitemap Home Skip Navigation Contact Us Disability Statement

 
 
Monday, 1st December 2008

Premium Article !

Your account has been frozen. For your available options click the below button.

Options

Premium Article !

To read this article in full you must have registered and have a Premium Content Subscription with the The Scotsman site.

Subscribe

Registered Article !

To read this article in full you must be registered with the site.

The pile 'em high, sell 'em cheap days have gone



Click on thumbnail to view image
Click on thumbnail to view image
Click on thumbnail to view image
Click on thumbnail to view image
Click on thumbnail to view image

Published Date: 30 September 2008

MOUNTING pressure on consumers caused by the snowballing credit crisis was laid bare yesterday by new figures showing a dramatic slump in mortgage lending in the UK.

The scale of the collapse of the housing market was illustrated more clearly than ever when the Bank of England admitted net lending of £143 million was advanced in loans last month – down a staggering 95 per cent from July's figure.

Millions of consumers are facing the prospect of higher mortgage costs and lower savings rates after Britain suffered its third major financial collapse of the world banking crisis.

Financial experts said the government's decision to nationalise Bradford & Bingley was the final nail in the coffin of the "pile 'em high, sell 'em cheap" mortgage market. Analysts believe its demise will also mean an end to some of the country's most generous savings rates.

The shock figure for mortgage lending was the lowest since records began more than 15 years ago – and down 70 per cent on the same month last year.

Dennis Hall, the chairman of the London branch of the Institute of Financial Planning, said: "There is going to be significantly reduced choice for savers and mortgage-holders. The days of pile 'em high, sell 'em cheap mortgages have disappeared, while savers are going to have to wear out a lot more shoe leather to find good deals.

The number of mortgages approved for house purchase sliding to a record new low of 32,000. Hetal Mehta, the senior economic adviser to the Ernst & Young ItemClub, said: "The housing market is showing no signs of bottoming out."


Case Studies

'I think it's safe if you buy sensibly'

MONICA Gibb has bought two Scottish properties in the last few months.

In July, the River City actress finalised the purchase of a country cottage in Butterstone, Dunkeld, for around £220,000. And, last month, she bought a property to renovate in Bruntsfield in Edinburgh for £185,000.

Ms Gibb bought the two properties after selling her mid-market house in Newington, Edinburgh, at the end of July.

She said: "I sold my old house because I wanted a change of lifestyle. I fell in love with the Perthshire cottage but also wanted to keep a base, and part of my life, in Edinburgh.

"Both properties need absolutely everything done to them, but I love doing up houses, it's a real passion of mine. I've done up flats, cottages and houses before and both these properties need work done to them including new bathrooms, kitchens, windows, electricity, plumbing, absolutely everything."

Ms Gibb, who has just turned 60, didn't think the housing slump would greatly affect the price of her properties and decided to buy because the time was right.

She said: "I'm a great believer in property and think it's safe if you buy sensibly.

"Lots of people are moving and there are mortgages available. I know it depends on your personal circumstances, but for me the timing was perfect. I saw the cottage and just had a gut feeling. I wanted a change in my lifestyle and I'm very happy with the result."

'So lucky to have sold when we did'

KATE Clark, 46, and her husband David, 48, bought a four-bedroom house in Duthil near Carrbridge, Inverness-shire, in early August.

Having sold their four-bedroom house on an estate in the residential area of Cradlehall near Inverness city centre last November, the Clarks had been renting while they waited for the right property to come along.

Mrs Clark said: "We decided to move because the children are now in university and living away from home. We have been looking for about 18 months and when we found this property, we wanted to buy it straightaway. This was always our plan. As soon as the children became old enough, we wanted to find the right property and live in the country.

"The market we were buying in has not changed greatly. We sold our house for £295,000 last year. It would have been much more difficult to sell that property at that price now, so we are extremely fortunate to have done so when we did."

Their new property, a large country house, is half an hour outside Inverness where Mrs Clark works as a nurse. Mr Clark works within the property department of a retailer based in Edinburgh.

The Clarks also owned a property in Glasgow's West End, and sold that for £225,000 in May this year. Together with the combined sums, they bought their new house through Strutt & Parker.

Mrs Clark added: "This was our dream. We wanted a house in the country with potential to develop it. Both my husband and I absolutely love it."

'Managed to move before value fell'

GARRY Buchanan, and Maureen Whitson, both 37, sold their two-bedroom property in South Paisley at the beginning of June for £128,000.

They bought a three-bedroom semi-detached bungalow in Ralston in August for £191,000 and have just moved in.

Mr Buchanan, who works in computers and IT in Glasgow, said: "We wanted to move to a bigger property and the timing worked out well for us.

"We just needed more room than we had in our mid-terrace house.

"Now we have a bigger place, a bigger garden, an extra bedroom and generally more space.

"We also have a drive and a garage which we needed so the move has been good for us."

Mr Buchanan said they put their house on the market in January and were not too concerned about falling property prices.

He explained: "We managed to sell our old house fairly quickly, at least before the value dropped.

"At Christmas, the credit crunch hadn't affected the country as much as it has now and we just thought that it was best to sell before the value fell." He added: "We have got the new house for slightly less than we might have paid because of the slump.

"But in this area, the prices haven't changed as much as they have in the rest of Scotland and so we didn't want to wait to buy.

"The time was right and we wanted to move to this area – partly because of family reasons, but also we just needed to upgrade our property."







The full article contains 1063 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

  • Last Updated: 30 September 2008 12:41 AM
  • Source: The Scotsman
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Related Topics: Economic indicators
 
1

Bien E. Bien,

30/09/2008 00:12:20
This may go to show: predicating wealth through house price inflation is not a true creation of wealth.
2

Aitchie,

Glebe 30/09/2008 01:37:51
An interesting point. And very well made.
3

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

30/09/2008 01:46:44
What's interesting about credit bubbles, and the busts that follow them, is that they follow certain historical patterns which are common to all. This one so far has been quite true to form.

The primary assets, be it tulip bulbs, shares or indeed domestic housing, don't really seem to matter. The bubble is about psychology and credit more than it is the chosen token that signifies everyone's hopes for wealth without work.

One common feature is that the price of the primary asset collapses in tandem with the deflation of the credit flowing through the system. This is inevitable since bids on the assets are made with credit rather than cash. As the credit vanishes is the debt-deflation, thus does the perceived value of the primary asset. Typical peak to trough falls are two thirds down from the top. Less perhaps in smaller bubbles and nearer 90% falls or more for the larger ones.

It's sobering to note that this bubble was without doubt the largest in history. Peak to trough fall in Wall Street stocks in the 1929 crash was 89%.

I have to admire the sheer bravery of the people putting money down on property in these circumstances. They should be given medals for putting their personal wealth between the country and harm.
4

Plodjfriss, Hammer of the Numpties,

Edinburgh 30/09/2008 02:00:29
They seem to have managed to interview the only 3 people who've sold a house in Scotland in the last four months.
5

Guga II,

Rockall 30/09/2008 03:46:41
#5.

It's time for your medication.
6

Bishop Boyne,

Loanhead 30/09/2008 04:10:47
3. Unless your haves a safe neath your bed for kruggerrandds or silver, property is as good a place for your money as any, when you can afford it. I for one am happy to be away from the sharks in the stocks and shares, and also even now out of the banking system.

Look where the money went in Zimbabwe as it went to meltdown, the savings rates offered at banks were unbelievable however the pieces of paper became irrelevant, people bought up property. Houses and property are always required and if you can afford to take the deflation/ low returns, you money is "as safe as houses".
7

GalacticCannibal,

Murrieta CA for more WAR VOTE McCain 30/09/2008 04:32:46
7
bring them on,
30

U wrote :I will continue to post my message of truth for the benefit of those readers who are not experts in economics."

Dude ,
U sound like a Holy Rollers..Pastor from a State in the deep south possibly Alabama.

The South will rise again ''''
GC

8

GalacticCannibal,

Murrieta CA for more WAR VOTE McCain 30/09/2008 05:28:55
10
bring them on

Hey Dude , Polar Bears eat huge blubber belly seals. Yum Yum. Yum Yum

What has happen here in the States to homes and foreclosures and manufactured mortgages, is about to happen in the UK.

tip: Never buy something U cannot afford. velly old Mandarin saying.

GC
9

J McAllister,

Aberdeen 30/09/2008 06:14:01
I feel so, so sorry for Monica Gibb. She's blinded by the recency effect, and is going to lose a fortune. She will get the sucker's payoff as one of the very last into the pyramid scheme before the collapse.

The idiocy of our country, of us all taken en bloc, with a few notable exceptions, turns us all into high-stakes gamblers, whether we realise it or not. It's extraordinary that people don't learn the cardinal rule: when lots of people seem to be getting lots of money for nothing, be VERY, VERY SUSPICIOUS: it cannot last.

Anyone who still maintains that Edinburgh's current prices are sustainable needs their head examined. Barring hyperinflation, prices there will fall around 30% from their current levels. And more if the HBOS deal collapses.
10

J McAllister,

Aberdeen 30/09/2008 06:16:50
Although, actually, as she sold her previous house in July, she'll end up all square, I guess...it's some poor first time buyer at the end of the chain who's going to get both barrels.
11

ccc,

30/09/2008 07:22:26
"Ms Gibb, who has just turned 60, didn't think the housing slump would greatly affect the price of her properties and decided to buy because the time was right"

In other news from 1637...

"Mr Verstapen, who has just turned 19, didn't think the tulip slump would greatly affect the price of his bulbs and decided to buy because the time was right"

So FOFP I think I am coming around to your predictions at a staggering pace. I previously thought 30% falls in Edinburgh. That was ridiculous. 50% plus falls in Edinburgh property easy. Even then by historical standards Edinburgh property won't even be what you could class as 'cheap'.

According to the ESPC the next figures fro Edinburgh will show average prices below 200k. That will be a fall from peak of about 14% already. Circa 20% in real terms.

I imagine we will be seeing falls in sales numbers of well over 50% compared to last year. As you have pointed out numerous times the sales drops give an indication of future price drops.

50% plus it is.

So considering what has happened recently have you revised your predictions downwards ?

Still looking at 66% plus ?

Cheers.
12

Destroy the Planet,

30/09/2008 08:28:56
Phew, i thought they were talking about beer there
13

wattie>x 1,

PLYMOUTH 30/09/2008 09:02:53
The global Establishment will use ANY illegal or legal option - and whatever the cost -to retain its control of the planet's people and their resources. There is nothing unusual about this latest MAN MADE disaster.
The human species has been under strict control since emerging from the cave environment.
14

joppa jock,

Huntingdon 30/09/2008 09:08:56
It's not too long ago that the country was divided between the rich and the poor. The rich, at least in Edinburgh, were seldom flashy with their money and few rode about in expensive cars. Then the world changed as the normally staid bankers gradually became spivs and barrow boys, all wanting to flash their cash until the poor people thought they'd like to be flashy as well. So they borrowed huge sums of money from the spivs and bought loads of stuff that they didn't really need nor could afford. They bought houses and took out mortgages that were impossible to maintain until suddenly, the bubble burst and we're heading back to where we were 50 or 60 years ago when only the rich can survive.
15

11+failed,

the pans 30/09/2008 09:10:07
Where is that spokesperson from ESPC?
We need those assurances that Edinburgh is a special case, Scotland didn't suffer the excesses of the British property market, there is growing demand with a stagnant housing stock, Edinburgh is a desirable place to live, Edinburgh is prospering from its success as a financial centre, the property market may be flat for a spell but prices are unlikely to fall, Edinburgh property prices have never fallen in the past 35 years.

Just joking!
16

ccc,

30/09/2008 09:49:52
#19

To be fair to the ESPC I think after years of ramping they have finally come down to earth. Prices here are too high. They can't remain that way. I don't think even the ESPC are arguing with that anymore.

Long term average:
One average house = 3-4 times one persons average salary.

Summer 2007 in Edinburgh:
One average house = 8 times one persons average salary.

Houses in Edinburgh last summer were twice the price they should be. That is as long as the long term average returns. Which it tends to do. That is why it is a long term average after all.

House prices in this City will fall by 50% plus in real terms. They have to. In the LONG TERM this is a good thing. Even for estate agents, solicitors, builders and the ESPC.

The sooner everyone accepts this the better. Denial is simply pointless.
17

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

30/09/2008 11:08:32
ccc: No change in what I'm predicting. Things are still going pretty much as I expected. The only surprise to me is that since the death of Fannie and Freddie, the pace seems to have picked up a bit.

All in all though that's a good thing. I've made it plain that I see that Japan's habiot of bailing out banks and refusing to accept their medicine is what got them 20 years of slump after their bubble burst in 1989. They're still not through the aftermath (though at 60% to 90% down, their house prices probably don't have a great deal further to fall).

Who wants that scenario? What's happening now is the cure for the bubble, which was the real problem. Let's stop trying to resurrect the bubble by saving the institutions that spawned it. Let's take our medicine; get this over with; and get to a decent society on the other side based on thrift and savings instead of debt.

Note which politicians support bailouts and get rid of them at each chance to vote. Meanwhile protect your own finances. The rule for debt-deflations is simple: if you have debt, sell the assets supported by it and pay the debt off. Then hoard cash and gold. You'll be able to buy assets for 10% to 50% of their previous price when we hit the bottom.
18

Nelly,

Paris 30/09/2008 13:12:43
People need to take a good look at themselves instead of looking for someone to blame in all this.

Yes the government and the financial institutions have been found out - but so too has every greedy man and woman who added fuel to this fire by over extending themselves and leaving no fat for winter.

Take a look at yourselves for example - how much debt have you got ? Loans for the Car, Mortgage, Credit Cards, Holidays, Home improvement etc - extended to the limit and refusing to put in any safety margin in for when the economy 'slows'.

People didnt put the roof on when the sun was shining and now can't keep out the rain.

This happened in the 80's and 90's too, albeit the world was a bit bigger then - but the same principles hold true.

Where has common sense gone ?!
19

Mcsnagpile,

30/09/2008 17:58:12
Ah wonder who lived in the single end wae the old cludgie in Morningside before ah paid half a million fur it.
20

Nellie,

Liverpool 30/09/2008 20:04:32
#8 Indeed. If I could afford it, I'd wait a few more months for prices to fall even further and then start buying property while it's cheap. Consider how many people got rich after the war in London - they'd bought up swathes of property at low prices - and the rest is history!

 

Comment on this Story

 

In order to post comments you must Register or Sign In

 
 
 
  

 
 


Sister Newspapers:
Press Complaints Commission

This website and its associated newspaper adheres to the Press Complaints Commission’s Code of Practice. If you have a complaint about editorial content which relates to inaccuracy or intrusion, then contact the Editor by clicking here.

If you remain dissatisfied with the response provided then you can contact the PCC by clicking here.