Ill Castro hands over the reins of power

AFTER 50 years in power, Cuba's ailing 81-year-old leader Fidel Castro will officially relinquish power today.

Most experts on Cuba, along with many Cubans, expect that his younger brother, 76-year-old Raúl, who is the defence chief and first vice-president and who has been serving as acting president since mid-2006, will be handed the baton.

What remains a mystery is whether the elder Castro will split the two most important jobs he holds as head of state – the president of the Council of State and president of the Council of Ministers – to give one to a younger loyalist. It is also unclear whom he will choose to replace his brother as first vice-president.

Adding to the complexity of the politics, Castro, whose letter of resignation was released on Tuesday, has yet to make it clear whether he will step down as head of the Communist Party. Under the constitution, the party has greater power than the government itself.

Many analysts, both abroad and in Cuba, predict Castro will continue to pull the strings of government, assuming his health permits, while appearing to hand over power.

But some Cuba experts said Castro's admission that his long illness had left him too weak to return to his post meant that he would let others run the government and try to overcome Cuba's economic woes.

"Fidel Castro is signalling he's getting out of the way," said Peter Kornbluh, a Cuba specialist at the US National Security Archive. "He's going from commander-in-chief to commentator-in-chief."

Julia Sweig, a Cuba expert with the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations, noted that both Fidel and Raúl Castro had said in recent months they had an obligation not only to lead, but also to yield to a younger generation of leaders.

To ensure that the socialist government survives for decades to come, Fidel needs to put one of his younger loyalists in a position of power, she said. That would mean sharing power and perhaps dividing up his duties. "Raúl knows he isn't the only game in town," she said.

At the top of the list of possible candidates to share power with Raúl or become first vice-president is Carlos Lage Dávila, 56, who has been serving as one of five vice-presidents.

He was in charge of managing the economy during the 1990s and attracting foreign investment after the Soviet Union collapsed and Cuba lost billions in aid.

Since Castro became ill, Lage has taken a highly visible role. He has travelled the world to represent Cuba and has visited China and Vietnam, two other state-run economies that have carried out free-market reforms some officials in the Cuban government hope to copy.