Fears for blood supplies as CJD test set to cut flow of potential donors

THE number of blood donors in Scotland is expected to plummet when a test for the human form of mad cow disease is introduced, experts predict.

Donor numbers are already at a record low, with shortages in some key blood groups.

Yesterday, a report predicted that a test for vCJD could be introduced for blood donations as early as 2009 to reduce the danger of the infection spreading.

But experts estimate that donor numbers could drop by 10 per cent as a result - and 20 per cent in the worst-case scenario - as people fear finding out they may develop a disease for which there is no cure.

The Scottish National Blood Transfusion Service yesterday set out its plans to increase donor numbers. But it admitted that without a rise in donors, the impact of the vCJD test on blood supplies could be significant, potentially affecting surgery in hospitals and delaying operations.

In June, the service said it had only had three days' supply of blood in some groups. Of eight main blood groups, only two were above the six-day recommended minimum stock level.

During the past two years, only 750 donations a day have been collected - the service needs 1,000.

Concerns about donor shortages were raised at the annual review of National Services Scotland - the blood service's parent body - where officials were questioned by the health secretary, Nicola Sturgeon.

Its report said that in 2006-7 it had almost 179,000 blood donors - a shortfall of 12,000.

The service said it needed 217,000 by 2009 - an increase of 21 per cent - which it admitted was a "major challenge".

Professor Ian Franklin, national medical and scientific director of the service, said an increase in the number of donors was essential to cope with an expected 10 per cent drop in people coming forward after the introduction of vCJD testing.

There is currently no reliable test for the deadly brain disease, which was passed to humans in the 1980s in infected beef.

But scientists are developing new methods and a test to identify those who may go on to develop vCJD could be ready by 2009.

It is feared donors will be put off giving blood by the test, which could tell them they are at risk of a disease which they can do nothing to prevent or treat, and which may never develop.

Prof Franklin said: "While nobody can be sure what impact a test might have, we have to plan for the fact that some donors will be lost to the service."

He said few people were likely to test positive for vCJD.

Prevalence of the infection is unknown. It has a long incubation period, which may vary according to an individual's genetic make-up.

Prof Franklin said there were fears donors could fall by as much as 20 per cent and that would be a major concern.

He said the service was looking at ways to reach more donors, including smaller donation sessions in remote communities, and improving blood use.

Frances Hall, of the Human BSE Foundation, said while testing for vCJD was vital, it posed a dilemma for potential donors. "There will be a fall in donations. I would certainly not want to know if I was going to develop vCJD, but at the same time, if it was a member of my family who was having an operation, I would want that blood to be safe."