Deal 'may let Robert Mugabe flee Zimbabwe and dodge prosecution'

THE end of Robert Mugabe's reign looked to be drawing near last night as senior aides tried to negotiate a "safe haven" deal for the 84-year-old dictator in South Africa, following his likely defeat by Morgan Tsvangirai in last weekend's presidential polls.

Mr Mugabe, who has ruled Zimbabwe with an iron grip since 1980, has been told he is trailing the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader in preliminary results sources said.

It emerged yesterday that the president's right-hand man, Emmerson Mnangagwa, flew to Pretoria on Monday to discuss plans for a safe haven, which would see Mr Mugabe immune from prosecution at The Hague.

Another option for Mr Mugabe may be to fly to Malaysia.

Last night, in his first public appearance since the election, Mr Tsvangirai said his party was not involved in the deal.

At a news conference, the MDC leader insisted: "Let me inform you there is no way the MDC will enter into any deal before the electoral commission has announced the results.

"Let's wait for the election commission to complete its work, then we can discuss the circumstances that will affect the people," he said.

He added: "Robert Mugabe has said he's an honest man. I hope that when the results are announced, it's a true reflection of the vote and there's no reason to investigate fraud."

Mr Tsvangirai also urged the electoral commission "to proceed with haste, and I think two and a half days is not haste at all." His party will release its own complete tallies today. Mr Mugabe has been warned he could provoke a Kenya-style uprising if he declared himself the winner of the polls.

It has also emerged that, as the full scale of Mr Mugabe's defeat became clear to observers, Zimbabwe's security chiefs ordered the country's electoral commission to announce parliamentary results so it looked as if the MDC and Mr Mugabe's ruling Zanu-PF were closely matched. Since Monday, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) has had to stage-manage announcements, broadcasting small batches of results every four or five hours.

By last night, authorities had announced results for 140 out of 210 constituencies. The two factions of the MDC had taken a total of 72 seats with 68 for Zanu-PF.

The MDC believes Mr Tsvangirai has won between 55 and 56 per cent of the vote on the back of widespread discontent with Mr Mugabe's disastrous 28-year rule.

However, analysts have warned that Mr Mugabe may yet find a way to cling to power. In a clear sign of unease, the former guerrilla leader has not been seen in public since Saturday.

Concerns have also been raised that Mr Mugabe could grab the presidency and dissolve parliament by presidential decree – possible according to Zimbabwe's constitution.

Zimbabwe's master vote-rigger is down but not out

ROBERT Mugabe, who rigged Zimbabwean election results in his favour three times between 2000 and 2005, is facing the biggest challenge yet to his vote-juggling skills following the presidential and parliamentary elections.

The problem facing Mr Mugabe is that the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) has so obviously, by nearly every informed account, won both polls by huge majorities.

However, no-one should discount the 84-year-old's skill.

The huge delay in the release of the results indicates Mr Mugabe and his top party and military aides are shocked by the scale of the defeat. But it is equally certain they are working on a surprise that will, at least, maintain for them a degree of power and rule out prosecution for crimes against humanity.

The few people, beyond his immediate circle, who are reasonably close to Mr Mugabe believe he is emotionally incapable of admitting defeat.

However, one whisper in Harare is that he is preparing to do so and will accept a safe exile, probably in Malaysia, where he has stashed most of his considerable wealth. For a man who has said: "Let me be Hitler tenfold," who has boasted of his "degrees in violence" and has warned he will only be taken from power in a coffin, this is the least likely scenario.

Another whisper is he is preparing to share power with MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai. This is not impossible, but Mr Tsvangirai would need to be at his most naive to accept such an arrangement. That leaves fixing the election in favour of himself and the ruling ZANU-PF party.

The slow fix, in which Mr Tsvangirai's vote would be declared at just under 50 per cent, would involve a run-off presidential election between the MDC leader and Mr Mugabe. This would give Mr Mugabe, his military chiefs and ruling party bigwigs plenty of time to manipulate the poll.

But the way parliamentary election results are oozing out suggest a late spurt of votes for ZANU-PF from rural areas will secure a narrow majority in parliament. In which case, why delay fixing of the presidential vote?

Mr Mugabe will go for the quick fix. He will then step down in the next five years, secure in the knowledge that he can live without fear of prosecution. A new ZANU-PF leadership will then try to repair the damage he has inflicted on his country: it will be a prolonged job.

• Fred Bridgland launched and edited for the past three years the Zimbabwe Report of the London-based Institute for War and Peace Reporting.