THE seeds were sown in 1970. In the unexpected defeat of the Labour government, a young Donald Dewar, later Wendy Alexander's patron and mentor, lost the seat in South Aberdeen, where he had done so well to beat the popular Conservative, Priscilla,
Lady Tweedsmuir.
The SNP had been contained. Labour had regained Hamilton, so spectacularly won for the SNP by Winnie Ewing in 1967.
But Mr Dewar, unable to find a seat for another seven years, became the focus of a group within the party who sought a solution to their understandable discontent, and Scotland's industrial problems, by setting up a Scottish Assembly. They were hugely assisted by the panic created in the Labour Party by Margo MacDonald's victory in Glasgow Govan at a famous by-election.
But the devolutionists made one false assumption – that if they got their assembly, it would be dominated by Labour forever. Predictably, and predicted by me and the Labour "Vote No" campaign in the 1978-79 referendum – and as foreseen by Eric Mackay, a great, shrewd, fair, and vehemently pro-assembly editor of The Scotsman – this would simply not be the case.
Sooner or later, a Labour administration in Edinburgh would fall out of favour. Confronted with this possibility, there was a disbelieving shrug of the shoulders, and the observation that the Tories (who had had a majority of seats and a majority of the popular vote in Scotland in 1951) would have their turn.
What few in the Labour Party forecast was that the disenchantment with Labour would turn people in the direction of the Nationalists rather than the Tories. It is conceivable that a devolution settlement would have worked if all parties had shown an astonishing degree of goodwill and had universally been prepared to accept that the Union was of paramount importance and superseded all other interests and considerations.
But this was far from the case. There was a party whose raison d'être was focused on dismantling the United Kingdom and challenging the Union. As soon as they became the likely alternative to an unpopular government, the seeds of the present problems of the Labour Party sprouted into healthy plants.
One crucial development which has gone almost unnoticed was, from the unionist point of view, the crazy actions of Margaret Thatcher, and her secretary of state, Ian Lang, aided by Lord James Douglas-Hamilton, then under-secretary of state at the Scottish Office, in killing off Lothian region, Strathclyde and the other increasingly successful big local-government units. Looking at Labour's present troubles, I identify the undermining of local government as a major cause of electoral adversity.
No-one can be surprised at the fandangle into which the occupant of Downing Street and the Labour leader in Scotland have become immersed. Their interests and political constituencies are fundamentally different.
Gordon Brown must take account of the feeling encapsulated by the vox-pop man from Southampton who told the Today programme at the beginning of the week: "Brown! We don't want a Scotchman as Prime Minister."
Wendy Alexander has to consider the situation if Mr Salmond becomes any more popular – people vote in referendums not necessarily on what purports to be the issue, however weighty it may be for the constitution, but on whether you like people as they appear on television.
I think that Ms Alexander may be right to call for a referendum, but profoundly unwise not to clear it with her colleagues in the Labour Party first – or, as we are led to believe, with her own brother, Douglas Alexander, the International Development Secretary.
On Tuesday, The Scotsman published a letter from me arguing for a fourth question, in addition to independence, additional powers or the status quo.
My phone has been choked with support for asking: "Do you wish the Scottish Parliament to continue in being?"
I am one of the few MPs or ex-MPs who have not criticised MSPs. But I believe people should be aware that if the Scottish Parliament now continues in existence, it does mean, sooner rather than later, the dismantling of the British state.
All I ask is people don't sleepwalk into something that actually they don't want.
• Tam Dalyell is a former Labour MP.
