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City still hot property despite prices slump

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Published Date: 12 June 2008
PROPERTY prices in the Capital have made it the sixth most valuable city in the UK – despite the average Scottish home falling in value by around £10,000 in less than a year.
New figures show the housing market downturn has wiped more than £20 billion off the value of residential property in Scotland.

But the research shows that homes in Edinburgh are collectively valued at £58 billion, making it the sixth highest in B
ritain.

The credit crunch has reduced the value of the average home in Scotland to just over £150,000 – down from more than £160,000 when the market peaked last year.

Property experts Zoopla.co.uk said that despite the fact property in Scotland has fallen in value, it is likely to escape the worst of the UK-wide crash.

Local experts believe that even though the market is considerably slower than it usually would be at this time of year, the city is keeping its head above water.

Former Hearts chairman Leslie Deans, who runs estate agent Leslie Deans & Co, said: "Edinburgh is not immune to the difficult period that the property market is currently experiencing.

"It's not as active as we would expect at this time of year and the number of people getting involved is not as high as one would expect, but we don't have evidence of prices crashing.

"It may change, but we certainly don't have anything like the problems they have down south."

Jamie Macnab, director of Savills in Edinburgh, admitted, however, that Scotland has been affected more than estate agents had first anticipated.

He said: "Me and most of the other agents thought that Scotland would manage to avoid the worldwide difficulties and we would get away with a short slowdown. In retrospect, it was a bit naive.

"That said, our offers over system is going to help us out because when we have competitively priced properties on the market, they still sell well. It's not all doom and despair like in some parts of England. Our London office is really suffering."

According to the Zoopla.co.uk report, the recent slump in property prices has wiped off more than £1 billion a day from the value of British homes in a year-on-year comparison.

The value of the Scottish market has gone down from more than £420 billion to £401 billion.

Alex Chesterman, chief executive of the property valuation website, added: "Despite the recent market downturn, it is clear the British property market remains one of the most valuable in the world.

"The past few months have been challenging but the long-term trend is extremely positive."

Homes in London – which make up 13.3 per cent of the total housing wealth in the UK – are collectively valued at £776.26 billion, while Glasgow is the third highest in Britain with a total value of £75.16 billion.





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  • Last Updated: 12 June 2008 10:21 AM
  • Source: Edinburgh Evening News
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Related Topics: Mortgage and property news
 
1

LVT,

12/06/2008 12:23:57
Another way of looking at this is to say that Edinburgh property-owners will collectively lose billions of pounds over the next couple of years as property values fall.

But advertisers might not like us reading that!
2

ccc,

12/06/2008 12:41:34
Their battle is lost. Why don't they just give up. 30-50% real falls are GUARANTEED in Edinburgh.

I do love their 'optimism in this story. Prices are falling but it's ok, we are a bloody expensive place to live in !!

Whay is that a good thing....
3

Daff,

Edinburgh 12/06/2008 12:51:38
CCC

Where do you people get your figures from ? '30 - 50% real falls' is just nonsense. I'd love to see where your calculations came from. I agree the Edinburgh market isnt immune from this but lets be a bit more realistic please.
4

,

12/06/2008 12:57:04
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
5

Smasher,

12/06/2008 13:00:12
Makes me glad I'm homeless. All you people who boasted about property values are now losing a fortune. Brilliant. I have room for one more in my 2 berth caravan. Must not snore, smell or have small b00bs.
6

Vandala,

12/06/2008 13:07:32
#5. When serious journalists, as opposed to press-release spouting Evening News hacks, are writing stories like this:

http://www.newstatesman.com/economy/2008/06/house-prices-housing-british

...then it's genuinely the time to start facing up to reality.
7

wake-up,

Liberton 12/06/2008 13:13:13
"City Still Hot" is pure rubbish!!
It will not be long until Edinburgh Solicitors and Estate Agents are closing their doors for good. The market is dead in Edinburgh and anything other than that is pure propaganda to keep the sellers coming through the doors. There are no where near as many buyers as there normally are at the moment and this will drive prices down. The City is COLD!.....
8

,

12/06/2008 13:16:54
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
9

Busymale,

12/06/2008 13:20:47
Funny this. You wouldn't know there is an impending crisis when you visit the new build developments. All their sales staff are talking up their plots as if the boom times were still here.

If you believed them their shanty towns will run against the market tide. You can't buck the market said Thatcher!

Yep, we sell ours at the current deflated rate and they take the premium price. I'm just going to love it when their over inflated prices start to fall.
10

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

12/06/2008 13:51:26
#5 has an inquisitive mind:

"Where do you people get your figures from ?"

You could try looking at Japan, which had its credit crunch from 1989 to present day:

Interest rates: zero percent (recently raised to 0.5%)
Unemployment: five and a bit percent at peak
House prices: down 50%-90% from peak

The clue is that credit bubbles are not the same as housing cycles. When they end, things get a lot more interesting.
11

Gastric Antral Vascular Ectasia,

12/06/2008 13:51:54
I'm laughing so hard I ruptured my spleen. Does anyone know a good surgeon?
12

Foresight,

By the Water of Leith 12/06/2008 14:07:42

#14

What you really need is a transplant of #9's boberies - after all he/she never vents his/her spleen.
13

Louis Catorze,

12/06/2008 14:09:26
#1, Mario, that's both very funny and a very pertient comment on the situation.
Have a free repossesed house as a prize!

Just to add, who at Scotsman towers thinks it's wise to ask those with a vested interest in the situation to comment?
14

joppa jock,

Huntingdon 12/06/2008 14:39:04
If you're moving house and its value drops surely the value of the property you're going to buy will also drop. This should be good news as estate agents fees and stamp duty will both be lower, so what's the problem?
15

joppa jock,

Huntingdon 12/06/2008 14:46:47
Apologies for coming back but Scottish estate agents have a very easy life as they encourage the system of 'offers over'. This means that they don't actually have to put a proper value on any property, they leave it to the poor mugs who then have to guess it for themselves and who can then spend a fortune on surveys with no guarantee that they'll get the property. When a house can go for 50% over its original price that proves just what a bunch of clueless chancers are raking in the cash.
16

Liz,

Edinburgh 12/06/2008 14:51:55
I am sorry but who exactly are "Zoopla.co.uk"?! and why on earth should we listen to a word they say?
17

Kirsty Boyd-Williamson,

New Town 12/06/2008 15:10:35
Since the 70s I have listened to the cyclical nonsense that the Edinburgh property market is on the edge of an abyss. And each cycle of doom sees the value of my own properties appreciate far, far ahead of headline inflation. My main property is valued every year for insurance purposes and had appreciated seven-fold since 1983. A second property which houses my daughter had trebled in value since 2001! My own reaction to the doom and gloom 'experts' is one of laughter as I head for an appointment with my bank's Investment Manager.
18

,

12/06/2008 15:23:23
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
19

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

12/06/2008 16:06:34
#20: "Since the 70's..."

So, for the second half of the up part of the credit cycle? Why not extend your knowledge to what happens in the down part too?
20

suse,

12/06/2008 18:22:13
what a balanced article from the Evening News. Just as well i dont actually for out 35p for this tripe.
21

Kirsty Boyd-Williamson,

New Town 12/06/2008 19:29:11
No.23 Fernando - I can only speak from my experience which is that my principal domestic dwellinghouse has appreciated in value every single year ahead of the various measure of price inflation except in 1978 and '79 when inflation was double-digit and the Winter of Discontent loomed. The notional profit should we wish to realise it is even more marked as we have never needed to incur the burden of a mortgage and the associated interest charges.
22

Robert12,

Edinburgh 12/06/2008 21:51:55
Hilarious. Properties may be holding value reasonably well in Edinburgh but that's maybe because none are getting sold! Two properties near me have been on the market for over 6 months now!
23

Wurg,

Edinburgh 13/06/2008 00:12:33
I am puzzled that the city is still considered "hot". One and two bedroom appartments are sticking on the market - just walk arround Edinburgh for the evidence.
The idea that Edinburgh is immune from the global credit crunch always looked niave. The city that will probably come off most lightly is Aberdeen - oil at US$140 and possibly rising being the reason.
Does anyone know where to get hold of proper statistical analysis of what is going on. I suspect that the median price is falling faster than the average price due to a big drop in activity at the bottom end of the market.
Go on Evening News be brave, be independent show us some independent statistical analysis featuring trend in median and various percentile values for different types of property.
24

Vandala,

13/06/2008 10:33:07
#27. That would require some actual research...the way journalism is set up these days, it just doesn't happen.
25

AbandonAllHope,

13/06/2008 12:45:02
You can pick up a tenement for 105000 fixed price these days, last few years it would have been offers over, says it all really and its not btl parasites selling up either.
26

Arrow,

edinburgh 13/06/2008 12:54:41
anything worth what people are prepared to pay for it. i have my own house all bought and paid for. houses are selling within 2 weeks of being placed on the market and for over £400K in the Blackhall/Murrayfield area. it is in the Granton/Waterfront area that the two bedroom flats are sticking becuase there are too many and a lot coming up at the same time.
what i am interested in is that the Central (UK) and the Scottish government are pushing for more houses to be built. the housebuilders are not building them because the credit crunch has hit them as providers to the market and and borrowers of finance to fund their business. so where are all of these houses going to come from if the builder ain't building?
27

ccc,

13/06/2008 13:31:36
"2 weeks of being placed on the market and for over £400K in the Blackhall/Murrayfield area"

That is 100% untrue. I keep a good eye on that area and yes there is the odd house selling quickly. There always will be. However there are MANY nice houses that have been sitting there for 6 months plus.

This crash will affect ALL houses. Some more than others (BTL flats) but it will affect ALL.

To think otherwise is being so naive it is incredible.

The property 'boom' was just a pyramid selling scam. Once the bottom is taken away the whole thing collapses.

As for builders most fo the large ones are basically now insolvent. Barrats are valued at less than 300 million and yet have debst of close to 1.5 Billion !!

How did they manage that over the last 10 years......
28

John N,

Edinburgh 13/06/2008 15:01:33
So, taking the Scottish valuation figures, the whole market decrease has been about 4.5%... and the drop in average house value across Scotland is about 6%. Not bad when we were recording 15% annual increases in house prices not so long ago.

The rate of reposessions is not going through the roof either. The folk who own these houses can, largely, still afford to pay for them. It's only a problem if they want to move. Clearly, if houses are staying on the market for 6 months, nobody is that desperate just yet.
29

ccc,

13/06/2008 15:23:56
#32.

No offence John but like the majority of the population you have no clue about percentages and just lap up what they tell you ;)

If something goes up by 100% it only has to come back down by 50% to be back where it started. They don't tell you that in estate Agents do they. I wonder why..............
30

Happy H,

Edinburgh 13/06/2008 15:56:53
#20 and 25. Kirsty, I suggest you look again at the wording of your 'insurance purpose' valuation. This should indicate that it has absolutely no bearing on the market value but relates instead to the cost to your insurance company of rebuilding your home if it was somehow destroyed. I do hope you don't find this out for real!
31

techpunk,

13/06/2008 20:52:08
#33

for someone who sees himself as some kind of all-seeing-property-eye, you dont half talk cr*p.

however, i think most here will agree, there is certainly entertainment value there.

i personally love your opinionated rantings: very, very humorous: the cheeky way you indiscriminently, and apparently without thought, put down local property opinion by housing industry participants (which you, as we all know are not...in any sense whatsoever), is very much in your favour, as far as entertianment value is concerned. your stubborness is somehow admirable, particularly as it is in the face of your own, homegrown BS.

no offence.
;)

32

ccc,

14/06/2008 08:59:12
#35.

Do you actually have anything to say on this matter ? Or are you just going to whine away about my 'BS' without being able to discount anything I say BECAUSE I AM CLEARLY RIGHT !!!

How about the percentage point I have made in post #33. Tell me how that is wrong and 'BS' and you can have £10,000. Seriously. Bring it on. Lets go. Money where your mouth is.

The fear of the previously glorified 'homeowners', who are mostly actually 'debt owners' is amazing. You are in trouble. Good. after having to listen to all the 'Look at how much I have made on my property' nonsense in the last 10 years it is far overdue.

:)
33

techpunk,

15/06/2008 09:27:49
#36

ok, i do have something to say on this matter. city still hot property despite prices slump.

your percentage blurb rattles off figures which have no connection with what is happening in the market whatsoever, and are irrelevant to John's earlier post, which you shamelessly poo-pooed.

i'm personally not in trouble at all (like the huge majority of homeowners). unless ofcourse the value of my property drops from 160k to 41k (what i bought it at), then all is fine thanks. unless you ofcourse know something the rest of the market participants dont know (which you continually imply).

"carry on property expert"

;)

34

techpunk,

15/06/2008 09:30:07
ps: can you send me a suggestion re collecting my 10k?

 

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