PREDICTING by-election results is about as scientific as taking a punt on Cabinet reshuffles.
One always has to be suspicious when parties concur. But the SNP and Labour appear to agree on one thing: Glenrothes will go Nationalist.
Neither side has been brave enough to predict an exact result or offer suggestions on a spread bet. B
ut both appear to be ignoring the narrowing bookies' odds.
There is a sense for Labour that, after the stuffing at Glasgow East, it would be happy to avoid humiliation in Glenrothes – and this does not necessarily mean winning. Spin doctors have deployed their best efforts at expectation management, saying Labour is the underdog, despite holding the seat. The council is run by the SNP, which also holds the Holyrood seat. The Nationalist campaign team is also slicker.
As one senior Labour Westminster source said: "On paper we can't do it. Much as I would like to see the SNP stuffed, I don't think we will pull it off this time."
However, others report there has been much more "affection" for Labour on the doorstep than in the Glasgow East campaign.
They believe that there is a "very good reception" to Gordon Brown, certainly compared to the call for his blood after the 10p tax debacle that dominated Glasgow.
But no source will say that Labour is on course to win.
The SNP, however, has no such qualms. It is concentrating on "switchers" – those voters tempted to go to the SNP.
Meanwhile, the SNP has reported a rush for applications from its supporters for postal vote forms, even though the deadline has passed.
This, insiders say, proves the SNP vote is highly motivated.
Once again, the Nationalists also appear to have much better voter records, so they know which households to target and how the vote is likely to go.
Sources believe they will gain a bigger majority than the 365 in the Glasgow East knife-edge.
There are pockets of the Fife seat where residents are telling SNP canvassers by two to one they will support their party. Clearly activists are struggling to keep a lid on their glee and failing miserably. One Labour source conceded: "If the SNP are predicting a win, they are being more realistic than hubristic."
