Out with the old, in with the new

HOW will you be living your life in
2009? Scotland on Sunday's writers reveal the people, the trends and the events that will shape your future in the coming 12 months.

INTERNATIONAL

Change is coming – at least that's what the world is hoping. When Barack Obama is inaugurated as the 44th US President on January 20 he will carry a great weight of expectation. How much he can actually achieve is up for debate but his coming is being heralded, not only in the US, as the dawn of a new era.

As the new Commander in Chief, his key challenges are in Iraq and Afghanistan. The President-elect, who opposed the Iraq war, has said he wants US combat troops out of Iraq in 16 months – but he has signalled he will listen to the advice of military officers at the time. Whether he can leave Baghdad in safe hands seems improbable, as the country is teetering on the brink of civil war, with Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr ready to leave Iran and return to Baghdad, where he can mobilise tens of thousands of supporters.

The US is due to send an extra 7,000 troops to Afghanistan by the summer and Obama is widely expected to appeal to Nato allies to contribute additional forces to a new troop "surge". Afghan president Hamid Karzai faces an election test in 2009, although an exact date has not been set amid a deteriorating security situation.

Then there's Russia and Iran. Relations between Russia and the West are at their lowest ebb since the Cold War, with tension over missile shields, oil, gas and Georgia. The missile shield, to be sited in Poland, is the most likely flashpoint.

Iran celebrates the 30th anniversary of the Islamic revolution in February and, although President Ahmadinejad is suffering domestically, the issue of nuclear weapons persists. Obama has said he would sit down with his counterpart in Tehran, a move that would receive harsh criticism, not least from Israel. But US engagement with Tehran could be crucial in ensuring the power of Iranian-backed al-Sadr is muted.

As if that weren't enough, a new front of terror revealed itself last month in Mumbai. If the attackers' links to Pakistan provoke a violent reaction from New Delhi, the fragile peace between the neighbours could be shattered. And it could take Pakistan away from its fight against al-Qaeda and the Taliban.

In Africa, Obama is expected to take a tough line, calling for the continent to strive to sort out its own affairs with the minimum of outside interference. The prospects, however, don't look too good. With the crisis in Zimbabwe worsening, South Africa's role is key. The new ANC leader Jacob Zuma – tipped to be elected president in April – is likely to take the same softly-softly approach favoured by Thabo Mbeki, amounting to little more than continued mediation.

Zimbabwe will be a major talking point in November when the Commonwealth heads of state meet in Trinidad. But Rwanda may also feature, with the country wanting to become a full member. Accusations that it has been aiding rebels fighting in neighbouring Congo are likely to be an issue.

Nick Drainey

CULTURE

MUSIC

Franz Ferdinand, led by Alex Kapranos, right, release their eagerly-anticipated third album, Tonight, on January 26. Is Scottish dub music the next big thing? And what does a human skeleton sound like when played as a percussive instrument? We'll soon find out.

Noisy nostalgia will be in vogue. February sees the return of Mancunian post-punk band Magazine while Hampden Park faces the prospect of greeting a 53-year-old in school uniform when rock legends AC/DC roll into town. Ronnie Wood and Rod Stewart are also back together as the Faces, with a tour in the pipeline.

Acts to watch out for include the fabulously kooky (and a little bit Kate Bush-y) Florence and the Machine, and Little Boots, who makes edgy dance-pop with an unusual Japanese instrument, the Tenori-on.

FILMS

If 2008 was the year of the comic book superhero, 2009 is the year of the literary adaptation.

The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button (February), based on a story by F Scott Fitzgerald, has a string of Golden Globe nominations including Best Actor for Brad Pitt's turn as a man who ages backwards.

There are a couple of interesting director-to-film pairings, with Guy Ritchie bringing his Cockney swagger to Sherlock Holmes (September); and Lord Of The Rings maverick Peter Jackson taking on the long-awaited adaptation of Alice Sebold's The Lovely Bones (December).

TV

It was the American dramas, especially Damages and Mad Men, that had us hooked this year, and while there are new series of both to look forward to, 2009 is the year us Brits get our telly mojo back.

BBC1 is dramatising The Diary Of Anne Frank across five nights in January. There's more tricky and intriguing subject matter in A Short Stay In Switzerland – a winter drama from Irish writer Frank McGuinness that explores the euthanasia argument through the story of Dr Anne Turner (Julie Walters). In an adaptation of Gillies Mackinnon's Zig Zag Love, Robert Carlyle plays the father of a teenage boy with cancer.

ART

There's much hype surrounding the Glasgow-based artist Martin Boyce, who has been selected as the first solo exhibitor to represent Scotland at the Venice Biennale in June. In the autumn, Boyce's Modernist-inspired work comes to Dundee Contemporary Arts.

On a more traditional front, the National Galleries of Scotland will stage Turner And Italy in Edinburgh. Said to be an exhibition about the love affair between the artist and the country, it will explore how Turner became enchanted with, and inspired by, the country's climate, landscapes and architecture. (March 27-June 7)

BOOKS

The debut to watch out for is All The Colours Of The Town (August) by Liam McIlvanney, son of novelist William. It's a thriller about sectarianism and secrets in the new Scotland. Also look out for Josh Bazell's Beat The Reaper, The Sopranos meets House meets 24. The big American title will be wunderkind Dave Eggers' novel based on Where The Wild Things Are (out in September) and other big sellers should include Jodi Picoult (Handle With Care, April), Henning Mankell (Italian Shoes, April), Jasper Fforde (Shades Of Grey, June), Jeffrey Archer (Paths of Glory, March) and Irvine Welsh (Reheated Cabbage, July). There's also a clutch of Booker winners with new work – Barry Unsworth (Land Of Marvels, January), Anita Brookner (Strangers, March), AS Byatt (The Children's Book, May), Graham Swift (Making An Elephant, March) and Kazuo Ishiguro (Nocturnes, May).

THE STAGE

The hottest theatre ticket of 2009 is the new star-studded production of Beckett's absurdist masterpiece, Waiting For Godot, which comes to the King's Theatre, Edinburgh (April 13-18). Chemistry between the two actors is a must in this famously uneventful play, so Sir Ian McKellen, above, and Patrick Stewart will surely go down a storm as the hopeless tramps awaiting the arrival of a mysterious guest.

Scottish Ballet spice things up with a new version of Carmen choreographed by Richard Alston (touring April-May); The National Theatre of Scotland stage Andrew O'Hagan's Man Booker-nominated novel, Be Near Me (touring March-April), and Scottish Opera take on Jules Massenet's Manon and Mozart's Cosi Fan Tutte (touring May-June).

Rosanna Chianta

LIFESTYLE

VIDEO VISOR

You may think they look like a device from Star Trek, but video visors are likely to be the must-have present by next Christmas. They allow you to watch a film on the inside lens while on a bus or train, without disturbing others. Unwieldy versions are already becoming available, but 2009 will see them streamlined to the equivalent of a pair of sunglasses.

EAT YOURSELF BEAUTIFUL

Get ready for a new a generation of food and drinks that are specially-formulated to enhance beauty. Nestlé's new Glowelle Beauty drink supplement powder fights signs of ageing from the inside out with skin-beautifying antioxidants, and Masterfoods' Dove Beautiful milk chocolate has skin nourishing ingredients like vitamins C and E, along with biotin, zinc and cocoa flavanols.

LOCAVORES

Eating local used to be the reserve of the well-off and hippies, but smaller food budgets are bringing "the good life" into fashion – and now, crucially, the trend has a name. Locavores will buy cheap cuts of meat from local butchers and their vegetables from local growers, as well as growing their own in the garden. Hotels and restaurants are already bowing to the pressure from customers asking where their food is from, and looking close to home for suppliers.

BEER, BED AND BREAKFAST

A good value alternative to the boutique hotel, beer, bed and breakfast means you will only pay for the things you want when you go away for the weekend. An increasing number of pubs with rooms are opening up and they have a quaint, cosy and individual style unlike the ubiquitous (and expensive) hotel chains.

POSH TIPPLES

It might be a credit crunch, but everybody needs a treat. Drinks industry experts predict top class alcohol, such as expensive bottles of whisky or port, are unlikely to see a drop-off in sales as people stop drinking in such quantity, preferring to sip and savour.

ELECTRIC BIKES

It is too expensive to run the car, but taking the bike is too exhausting to think about. The electric bike will solve this dilemma in 2009, as transport technology looks to electricity as the next viable power source. E-bikes have been an object of ridicule in cycling circles for a decade, but since more than 20 million of them were sold in China last year, they are being taken more seriously.

CYBERCRIME

With IT professionals being laid off, some analysts have speculated they will turn their skills to crime. The main danger is expected to be trojan horses, pieces of software that claim to be screen savers or performing another useful function but in fact damage the computer. As the internet becomes more popular for everything from supermarket shopping to gaining qualifications, users will also need to be savvy to its dangers.

STILL HAVING A LITTLE FUN

Little pleasures like neon make-up, fun-to-eat food, or a quirky accessory for a mobile phone will keep people's spirits up in 2009. Brands will tempt people in with treats that are free or cost a few pence, such as an amusing application for an iPhone. It might be a year for frugality, but we will still express our fun side in smaller outbursts.

Fiona Gray

FASHION

MEN'S FLORALS

Women would be well advised to put a padlock on their wardrobes next year as floral fashions reach the men's catwalks. The blokes are expected to "blossom" this spring, with Gucci even bringing out floral shoes for men as they embrace the latest trend. Those in the know expect to see floral-printed suits being partnered with linen shorts.

CHARITY CHIC

As shopping budgets get even tighter in 2009, "old" is the new "new". Following in the footsteps of style leaders such as Sienna Miller and Kate Moss, more of us will be putting together charity shop offerings. Quirky use of colour and lots of layers are the answers to updating Oxfam offcasts, which will define the styles of the year.

KNITWEAR

The thermostat will be set lower than ever this winter as we save pennies and the planet, so it's good to see that chunky knitwear is poised to make a comeback. Whether you're in thick, woolly jumpers, leg warmers or even knitted jewellery, you'll get more kudos if your outfit looks like it was made by your granny. See Prada, Marc Jacobs, Vivienne Westwood, Oscar de la Renta and Anna Sui.

BRIGHT IS BEAUTIFUL

As an antidote to the bleak economy the catwalks will be awash with colour in 2009. American colour experts at Pantone, which predicts the hot colours for each season, are promising that spring will be about fun – think blocks of vibrant green, right, royal blue, lemon yellow and fuchsia.

ALMOST FAMOUS

Many of the designers to be investing in for 2009 will use colour bravely and offer unique style at a fraction of the price of haute couture. Some of the names already establishing themselves include Alexander Wang, Rodarte by Kate and Laura Mulleavy, Andrea Lieberman (ALC), and Anne-Valérie Hash.

HATS

Berets, bobble hats, headscarves and helmets will all be in. Headgear is a big trend of 2009, and the more wacky, colourful and artistic the better. Teamed with thick khol eye make-up and bright lips, the hat trend is an easy way of making a statement next year.

GOLD

There is no gold in the banks, but the catwalks are loving the bling. As well as gold jewellery, metallic materials are also in as gold eye make-up and nail varnish. Everyone from Dior to Vivienne Westwood has incorporated the gold look for spring.

Fiona Gray

ECONOMY

A HAPPY New Year? Forget it. With unemployment, factory output and both business and consumer debt heading in the wrong direction, 2009 will be more like a hazardous New Year that will leave few of us unscathed.

But first, the plus points: anyone on a tracker mortgage is already considerably better off thanks to the big interest cuts since November. Some industries, such as drink and food, and especially comfort foods such as confectionery, will be relatively protected from the downturn.

Sadly, that's about as good as it gets. The rest of us will be in the frontline of a war against a deep and possibly long-lasting recession and our only hope is that the forecasters who have a habit of getting things horribly wrong will do so again and that the world economy proves more resilient.

After all, it is only last summer – a mere six months or so ago – that economists, analysts and trade bodies were predicting oil at $200 a barrel and urging the Bank of England to keep interest rates high to curb inflation.

Now they warn of deflation – or prices falling – zero interest rates, a declining pound, factory closures, a slump in the value of pensions and a general stagnation not seen since the 1930s depression.

Casualties are mounting – Woolworths being the most visible and symbolic, not only a victim of a curb on spending but also of changing habits. Its time had come anyway, squeezed by the internet and the growth and convenience of the multi-product, better-value supermarkets. Other high-street retailers are looking over their shoulder, noting the expansion of discounters such as Poundland and the ever-growing threat of online sales. Expect more shutdowns and mergers of big-name stores.

The biggest crisis – the collapse of the banks – took everyone by surprise and has changed the landscape of financial services for good.

No one could have foreseen the end of Lehman Brothers and the takeover of our very own HBOS. Even with the rump of the Edinburgh bank now under Lloyds TSB ownership and both it and Royal Bank of Scotland part-nationalised, there is no sign yet of an end to the sector's problems and challenges.

The banks are still not lending at required levels and may need another injection of taxpayers' money. They argue that they are boxed in by the need to repay their £37bn Government loans. Unless they can renegotiate terms, complete nationalisation beckons.

The year has ended with yet another scandal – the alleged $50bn fraud by the US fund manager Bernard Madoff – emphasising the need for and inevitability of tighter regulation and compliance rules that will impact on world trade, not least the free flow of capital which has financed globalisation and growth.

Those sitting on vast pots of gold, including the sovereign wealth funds mainly in Asia and the Middle East, may bide their time for the recovery in 2010 and 2011.

Then we may see some of our treasured and – thanks to the plunge in stock markets – hugely undervalued western icons disappear in a slew of takeovers. It will be the ultimate price for our greed-fuelled growth and recklessness.

Terry Murden

SCOTS POLITICS

With the recession overshadowing politics in all its forms, the First Minister's extended honeymoon in Bute House now appears a distant memory.

Not only does Alex Salmond have to lead a Scottish Government that looks irrelevant when it comes to grappling with economic turbulence, but he also has to drive through the most problematic Bills of the SNP's legislative programme.

He has pretty much run out of the relatively straightforward populist measures that his minority Government can ease through Parliament.

There are no more bridge tolls to abolish, action has been taken to rule out prescription charges and council tax has been frozen. Now Salmond is faced with a programme that is fraught with potential pitfalls and his administration's achievements are looking decidedly fragile.

John Swinney's much heralded "concordat" with local authorities, which laid the down the framework for a three-year freeze on council tax, could unravel, with council leaders warning that bills could rise next year.

The SNP's Council Tax Abolition Bill is likely to run into all sorts of difficulties, with the SNP's key policy to replace the levy with a local income tax already encountering widespread opposition.

Legislation to ban alcohol off-sales to under 21s also appears to be heading for trouble, while plans for elected health boards introduced by ministers last year have met with opposition from the British Medical Association and the Royal College of Nursing.

Plans to cancel student debt, introduced to great acclaim, are proving difficult to afford, while the much-vaunted Scottish Futures Trust, which was supposed to replace Private Finance Initiatives as a means of funding schools and hospitals, has failed to deliver.

But still the greatest challenge facing Salmond (and everyone else, for that matter) is economic hardship. Financial turmoil has dealt his vision of an independent Scotland a crushing blow.

The First Minister faces the daunting task of persuading a sceptical public that Scotland should deal with the crisis without the support of the rest of the United Kingdom.

Parking the constitutional question does not seem to be an option – not with the Calman Commission publishing in the summer its conclusions on how the devolved settlement can be improved. Salmond knows he is unlikely to get his plans for a 2010 referendum through Parliament.

That means some sort of deal could have to be hatched with the Liberals for a multi-option referendum that includes an option that delivers more powers to the Parliament while keeping Scotland within the Union.

Expect Lib Dem leader Tavish Scott to emerge as a key player in 2009 as the negotiations begin. For Labour leader Iain Gray 2009 will be about rebuilding his party as a credible force in Scottish politics. To do that he must rise out of anonymity and develop his public persona – something that could prove tricky with Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy stealing much of the limelight.

Scottish Conservatives leader Annabel Goldie will be hoping that General Election fever will see a resurgence of support in Scotland, but the reality is that the great Scottish Tory revival still remains a far off and highly improbable dream.

Tom Peterkin

UK POLITICS

Imagine this. The New Year sales fail to revive the misery on the high street. One major retail name after another sinks beneath the waves. As the sense of crisis deepens, Gordon Brown – now broadcasting weekly messages to the nation on a Sunday evening – urges the country to find its inner Dunkirk. Cameras switched off, he steps up his meetings with general election supremo Douglas Alexander to once a day.

Labour's printers – kept on stand-by 12 months a year to roll out millions of leaflets on demand – are told to prepare. Alistair Darling breaks with convention and presents his Budget in the last week of February. Another series of stimulus measures are unveiled, in time for the new tax year. Then, on April 2, a sudden flash of brightness shines through the gloom: President Barack Obama arrives at the G20 summit, to be held in London, on what is the first foreign visit. Brown meets him off the plane. Brown sits next to him at dinner. Brown follows him into the toilet. And sharing a platform at the end of the talks, with the world's media before him, Obama turns to his British ally, places a hand on his shoulder, and praises the leadership of this steadfast British leader. "I know in Gordon Brown I have a friend I can trust," God tells Gord. Two weeks later, his status as supra-political man of history assured, Brown calls an election for May.

Far fetched? Maybe. Burnt by the fiasco of the on-off election of 2007, ministers and aides are letting it be known that an election next year is absolutely and completely off the agenda. Amid Labour MPs, however, speculation is rife. The logic, they contend, is overwhelming. Brown should go to the people while the public are still wary of handing the reins of power over to David Cameron and George Osborne. His new-found status of father of the nation will not last forever, they say. Better to go now.

An election in May or June cannot therefore be ruled out. Many senior Labour figures fear that, if they don't, come the autumn they'll be found out. Alistair Darling has already set the clock ticking, by claiming that the worst of the recession will be over by the time the leaves start falling. Should he be wrong, the government will be defenceless.

Eddie Barnes