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Demand means property market will recover

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Published Date: 30 October 2008
ANYONE trying to sell property probably doesn't need reminding how tough it is out there.
But while the situation doesn't make for good reading, it's important that we don't batten down the hatches completely and talk ourselves into a housing market crisis.

In fact, it's probably time we started to be optimistic.

The truth is, the
re is every reason to believe that the property market is poised to make a quick return to normal.

Think about it, in 2006 there were some 11,500 houses sold through the ESPC; in 2007 around 10,500 properties changed hands. Up to the end of August, there have been only 4500 houses sold through the ESPC in and around Edinburgh.

What that means is there is a tremendous pent-up demand brewing. The same thousands of people who moved home in the last two years can't have suddenly disappeared.

Single professionals look to buy, couples get married or start families; partners split up or elderly people look to downsize – and above all, people continue to move jobs. These are all human factors that have no bearing on what is happening in the property market.

All that's happened is that these potential buyers have put house buying on hold because of lack of confidence in the market.

That means that once the market takes a turn for the better, the champagne corks will explode.

Before too long, the market will bounce back to the place it was, before what I always believe should have been described as a banking crisis and not a housing crisis, happened.

Of course, the big question here is "when"?

I think we are getting very close. The US banks are starting to clean out their toxic debts, the mass shake-up in the UK banking sector is settling down and attractive mortgage rates have slowly been returning.


The ducks are all starting to point in the same direction – so let's, for once, start to ensure we don't shoot them down.

• William Frame is chairman of Edinburgh-based Braemore Property Management, one of Scotland's leading residential letting agencies.




Page 1 of 1

  • Last Updated: 30 October 2008 9:56 AM
  • Source: Edinburgh Evening News
  • Location: Edinburgh
 
1

Plodjfriss, Hammer of the Numpties,

Edinburgh 30/10/2008 12:15:00
"The truth is, there is every reason to believe that the property market is poised to make a quick return to normal."

Whatever that is, Mr. Frame, it is not the truth. Take a look at the graph of house prices on this BBC webpage:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7698393.stm

The trend is emphatically downwards, and anyone who's thinking of buying a house will be realising that if they wait another year they'll save themselves many tens of thousands of pounds. With the current economic atmosphere, no-one with any sense will be diving in to the housing market any time soon.



2

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

30/10/2008 13:18:29
I've never seen an article look more like whistling past the graveyard.

The basic assumption is that the demand seen in the credit bubble was somehow normal rather than frantic trading as people with Dollar signs in their eyes tried to profit from it. It's clear that such speculative demand will no more return than it did for million-Guiler tulip bulbs.

It also misses that demand without money isn't demand at all, but wishful thinking. The banks won't ever return to the credit spree of the bubble. Even if they tried, the authorities would regulate to prevent it.
Meanwhile we'd best hunker down to a more normal marlet where 25% deposits become common and only folks who can prove income and a record of saving will be given 2.5 or 3 times salary.

As for the assumption that the credit markets are anywhere near over their problems, it's an astonishing mixture of naivete and wishful thinking.

As I've said before: this isn't the problem. The credit bubble was the problem. This is the cure and markets now are a lot closer to what will become normal than were markets during the bubble.

3

GLasVegas,

CObtoWn 30/10/2008 14:15:51
where do they get these guys from..
4

ccc,

30/10/2008 15:18:36
"Before too long, the market will bounce back to the place it was, before what I always believe should have been described as a banking crisis and not a housing crisis, happened"

This guy is a Chairman of a large company ?!!

Maybe he would like to research one of the root causes of this whole 'crisis'.

He will soon find out that overpriced property is the central part of all this mess.

How uneducated for a man in his position to be. Just shows how people with zero clue have managed to 'make it' in the last few years based on nothing at all.
5

Leila,

Edinburgh 30/10/2008 16:02:36
His comment that "once the market takes a turn for the better, the champagne corks will explode" says it all, really. The world has changed, but some people just don't learn.

Not only is it highly unlikely the housing market will bounce back to where it was anytime soon, it's not even desirable that it does.


6

LVT,

30/10/2008 16:36:10
Absolute and utter tripe.
7

Lord_S,

Edinburgh 30/10/2008 20:30:52
William Frame GROW UP!

 

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