THE occasion will be a modest one. Certainly far more modest than ten years ago when celebrations included a fly-past by Concorde accompanied by the Red Arrows.
On Wednesday, 1 July, it will be a decade since the formal opening of the Scottish Parliament, reconvened after a gap of almost 300 years to take charge of the nation's domestic politics. The Queen plans to pop over from the Palace of Holyroodhouse
for the day to check on how the neighbours are doing and she will find an institution in remarkably good fettle, considering what trials it has been through (four First Ministers, the Holyrood building furore and two expenses scandals, to name but a few).
We must always guard against complacency, and self-congratulation is never a pretty sight, but Scottish devolution has been a success. It has addressed the democratic deficit that saw Scotland governed by a party it had rejected at the polls; it brought Scottish institutions such as health, law and education under Scottish democratic control; and it set in place a system of government that is internationally regarded as a model of access, transparency and accountability.
And yet the Scottish political landscape in 2009 is in many ways a curious place. As a result of new political dynamic in a changing world, and a lessening of tribal loyalties, there is a mismatch between the people and the political parties that seek their votes. For much of the last half of the 20th century, the party system pretty accurately reflected the instincts of the population. Now in Scotland, there is a serious risk that important strands of opinion go unrepresented in the political sphere. Parties coalesce around the views of the (usually small) numbers of enthusiasts who sign up to key tenets – but there is no snug and convenient fit between parties' beliefs and voters' views.
The success in recent years of the SNP, for example, does not appear to be entirely due to a wholesale conversion to independence. Rather, at least part of it is a combination of an increasingly unpopular Labour party and the continuing failure of the Tories to find traction in Scottish opinion, even while David Cameron's Tories are turning the political map of England true blue. Many SNP voters would reject independence in a referendum, just as many dyed-in-the-wool Labour supporters would vote yes with enthusiasm. And, as the unionist parties coalesce around the argument for more powers for Holyrood as prescribed by the Calman Commission, who represents that portion of the Scottish population who are happy with the status quo? And what about those who remain steadfastly opposed to devolution and would rather return to some form of direct rule from Westminster? Tam Dalyell, whose verdict on the past decade we publish today, is probably not alone in his views.
The Scottish political landscape has changed beyond measure in the past ten years. The devolution that was given was regarded as a solution to the calls for greater autonomy, but instead now most agree that more powers are required to fulfil a growing demand. Labour's grip – held for decades – has slipped; the Tories have yet to re-emerge as any semblance of a political force; the Lib Dems appear to have lost momentum; the Greens are in the long grass; and the SSP has fragmented.
All this at a time in which public confidence in elected representatives has never been weaker.
As election turn-outs are examined and this new democratic deficit continues to increase, it is to be hoped that the next ten years will see a realignment of Scottish politics to fit the new political landscape. Shall we see – as in Quebec, Catalonia and the Basque country – a split in the nationalist movement between those for whom full sovereignty is all and those who are content to govern as a semi-autonomous nation within a bigger state? Will new parties emerge, or existing parties adapt along traditional Right-Left lines, as tough economic choices reveal radically differing political philosophies? Will we see the so-called unionist parties become ever more loosely connected to their London counterparts? Will some of the people who feel that they are not being heard in our new democracy find a voice? Who knows, but the lesson of the past decade is that Scotland is a country that is conducive to change.
