POLITICIANS are poring over maps, checking their election data and doing their sums. There's only a week to go before the deadline for objections to the latest planned shake-up of Edinburgh's political map.
•
Click here to open PDF map of the boundary changesThe proposals would see a radical redrawing of the city's six Holyrood constituencies in time for the next Scottish Parliament elections in 2011. And the lines on the map put forward by the Boundary Commission could help decide the fate of city MSPs as surely as votes in the ballot box.
The commission has produced proposals for the whole of Scotland – and the map they have come up with involves much bigger changes than many expected. In Edinburgh it looks like Labour and the Tories risk losing out, while the Liberal Democrats in particular stand to gain.
The commission – made up of a judge and two academics, advised by an official – is strictly independent and has to base its recommendations on achieving constituencies with roughly the same population, while taking into account local authority boundaries.
Individuals and community groups can object to the way the proposals affect their own area and there is almost certain to be a public inquiry before the end of the year. Labour and the Tories are likely to submit alternative plans for the whole city. The Lib Dems and the SNP seem happy to let the boundary changes take their course.
The debate at the inquiry will be about preserving natural communities and historical ties. But the sub-text is all about parties trying to make sure they don't lose out from the changes.
So what are the proposals and what would they mean?
Labour's Sarah Boyack looks the MSP most at threat from the shake-up, with her Edinburgh Central seat set to be radically reshaped. Traditional Labour areas like Stenhouse, Saughton and part of Abbeyhill would go and less favourable areas like New Town and Stockbridge would come in.
Having won a hard-fought campaign to hang on to the seat against a strong challenge from both the Lib Dems and the SNP at last year's election, Ms Boyack would face an uphill struggle to hold it again if the new boundaries are approved. She is keeping her powder dry until Labour has decided on its response.
She says: "I was re-elected less than a year ago to serve the constituents in my current seat and that's what I will be concentrating on."
But it is understood one of the issues the party will highlight is the plan to split Gorgie and Stenhouse. "That's an obvious community of 8000 people which would be broken up by these plans," says a Labour insider.
The Tories are relatively happy with the boundary changes across the country. They believe the new map could mean ten potential Tory seats as opposed to the four they currently hold. But they are definitely not impressed with the plans to redraw the Edinburgh Pentlands seat held by former leader David McLetchie.
The Boundary Commission wants to remove the Tory stronghold of Fairmilehead and neighbouring South Morningside and put them into Edinburgh South instead, but add in Labour-voting Stenhouse and Saughton.
Tory calculations suggest Mr McLetchie should be able to hold on with a much-reduced majority of under 1000, but Labour believe the changes could give them the advantage.
Mr McLetchie says he could still win the seat on the new boundaries but he will be objecting to the proposals because they would mean splitting Fairmilehead from Colinton and the Oxgangs and Colinton Mains area which are all covered by the same council ward.
He says: "I would prefer to see the whole of that ward within one parliamentary constituency rather than split."
MR McLETCHIE will also argue strongly for the name Pentlands to be retained rather than changing to the anodyne "South West", which has already been adopted for Westminster.
He says: "It's trying to suggest the Westminster and Scottish Parliament boundaries are the same by using the same names, but they are not and it is downright misleading to give them the same names."
The commission proposes – rather unconvincingly – the Holyrood seats be named South Edinburgh, West Edinburgh and so on, rather than Edinburgh South and Edinburgh West, to distinguish them from Westminster constituencies.
But Mr McLetchie suggests Edinburgh South could follow the Pentlands example and be renamed Edinburgh Braids; Edinburgh West could add Queensferry to its title to underline the extent of the seat; Edinburgh North & Leith could revert to plain Leith as a reflection of its new boundaries; and Edinburgh Central could be renamed Edinburgh Castle – or even Arthur's Seat.
Lib Dem Margaret Smith's West seat is the least affected by the proposals and her comfortable majority should remain.
The proposed changes for South – removing the Labour-voting areas of Moredun and Gilmerton and bringing in South Morningside and Fairmilehead – are widely seen as making the seat safer for the Lib Dems who took it from Labour at the 2003 Scottish Parliament elections. One Labour source says: "For us, it's goodbye to South for ever."
Moredun and Gilmerton would be transferred into East, the seat won by Kenny MacAskill for the SNP when Labour's Susan Deacon stood down last year. That might be seen as helping Labour to win it back, but the SNP says it has a good vote in these areas. And that expansion is matched by the removal of Musselburgh.
The political impact of the changes in North & Leith are also viewed as broadly neutral, even though the New Town and Stockbridge would be removed and Leith Links, part of West Pilton and an area around Fettes would be added in.
The Lib Dems listed the seat, currently held by Labour's Malcolm Chisholm, as one of their targets last time.
However, the biggest change in the constituency – the massive growth from the Waterfront development – has not been taken into account because the commission has to base its calculations on the existing numbers of voters rather than projections. That will have to wait for the next boundary review around 2020.
