THE Westminster expenses scandal looks likely to lead to one of the biggest clear-outs of the Commons in living memory at the next general election.
A host of Conservative and Labour politicians – some of them senior figures – have already decided to stand down rather than risk humiliation at the polls. Many more could still follow suit.
And those who opt to ask voters for their continued supp
ort despite being exposed for questionable claims could well find themselves decisively rebuffed.
Labour's electoral prospects were looking grim before. And although all parties are implicated in the expenses crisis, Labour stands to lose more in Scotland, if only because they have the most seats.
So what will it mean for the politicians who represent Edinburgh and the Lothians at Westminster?
Chancellor Alistair Darling, MP for Edinburgh South West, was one of the first targets of the Daily Telegraph revelations, accused of "flipping" homes four times in four years, which meant he could claim towards the costs of his Edinburgh home and a London flat.
Tory hopes of winning the seat –which contains much of the old Pentlands constituency once held by Sir Malcolm Rifkind – were already buoyed by the state of the economy and the hope that voters would take out their anger on the man in charge at the Treasury. The expenses scandal has boosted their hopes further. But Labour insiders say Mr Darling is well respected in the area. He won with a majority of 7,242 last time and it would take a good swing for him to be ousted.
Michael Connarty, Labour MP for Linlithgow & Falkirk East, has a substantial 11,202 majority, but he has been the subject of some lurid coverage over his expense claims, which included a £250 alarm clock. And his response – saying politicians should not be forced to shop at 99p stores – has done nothing to help him.
Such a big majority may be difficult to sweep away entirely, but Mr Connarty could well see it slashed dramatically.
Neighbouring Labour MP Jim Devine, who took over the Livingston seat from Robin Cook, looks more vulnerable. He is accused of claiming £2,157 for rewiring his London flat, but presenting an invoice with a false VAT number and the name of a fictional company. And his office assistant says despite running up car and mileage costs of £11,700 she only received £60 from Mr Devine for driving him around the constituency.
His majority is 2,680 and the SNP is targeting the seat after winning the equivalent constituency at the 2007 Holyrood election.
Edinburgh South MP Labour Nigel Griffiths has one of the smallest majorities in Scotland – just 405 – and is therefore seen as the most vulnerable MP in the Lothians. He has not so far been named in the expenses scandal, but he did appear on the front page of a Sunday newspaper two weeks running over an alleged sex romp with a mystery woman in his Commons office.
The Liberal Democrats and the Tories are both targeting the seat and Mr Griffiths' only hope of survival could be if they split the anti-Labour vote. Labour insiders say, however, defeat is almost certain.
On paper, Labour's Mark Lazarowicz in Edinburgh North & Leith is also vulnerable with a majority of 2,153. But party insiders predict he will hang on, claiming he is well-liked and hard-working.
Mr Lazarowicz became part of the expenses story when he decided to repay £2,500 of his expenses – half of a legal bill for extending the lease on his London flat – despite having done nothing wrong.
The Lib Dems are targeting the seat, but might find the SNP taking a big chunk of the opposition vote.
John Barrett, Lib Dem MP for Edinburgh West, and David Hamilton, Labour MP for Midlothian, both have safe seats and seem to have been untouched by the expenses scandal.
East Lothian Labour MP Anne Moffat – majority 7,620 – has been criticised for her expenses in the past. In 2003-04 she topped the league for travel costs with claims totalling £40,000 but has not been highlighted in the Telegraph revelations. However, the tensions between her and local activists which led to talk of deselection are said to be in abeyance rather than resolved. But it would be a major upset for Labour to lose such a loyal seat.
Gavin Strang, the long-serving MP for Edinburgh East, announced some time ago he would be retiring at the next election. Labour has chosen former councillor Sheila Gilmore to replace him and as a new candidate she is exempt from the expenses scandal.
But the SNP won the equivalent constituency in the Holyrood elections, partly due to divisions in the local Labour party, and will target it again for Westminster.
MPs' excessive and arrogant expense claims have rightly sparked unprecedented public anger. They will not be the only factor at work when voters go to the polls, but they can only add to the problems of politicians whose jackets are already on a shoogly nail.
