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Budget analysis: From hero to zero in high-risk strategy

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Published Date: 29 January 2009
AT FIVE minutes to five yesterday afternoon, Patrick Harvie was on the verge of securing the biggest and best policy achievement for the Green Party in British political history.
He had taken the Scottish Government down to the wire, using brinkmanship and threats to cajole and force ministers to offer him £33 million for a nationwide home insulation package.

He had first demanded £100 million a year, the Scottish Governm
ent had offered £22 million, but Mr Harvie had refused and demanded £33 million.

At that point, just before five o'clock, when John Swinney stood up to confirm that £33 million would indeed be spent on the scheme, it really looked as if Mr Harvie had secured a coup. There was one slight problem – Mr Swinney did not guarantee that all the money would be new money.

That was it as far as Mr Harvie was concerned as he, and his fellow Green MSP Robin Harper, voted against.

The Budget has fallen and, for the moment at least, so has Mr Harvie's insulation scheme.

In the end, the Greens may get the scheme as they demanded it, but they do not know that for certain. There is a chance that Mr Swinney might decide it is easier to get a deal from Labour. Then they will have nothing. It has been a high-risk strategy.

This morning, Mr Harvie could have woken up to headlines lauding him as a master tactician. Instead, he now faces an angry Scottish Government, a Budget which has to be renegotiated and the possibility of an election. Only he will know if it was really worth it.



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1

webwise,

Scotland 28/01/2009 22:18:32
A spectacular victory for Labour and the Lib Dems - or is it?

My belief is that Labour only now realise what a calamity this might be for them, the Lib Dems are going the way of the dodo anyway.

For so called responsible parties to behave in such a partisan way in the midst of this economic crisis is the height of irresponsibility.

Labour along with the Lib Dems effectively removed themselves from this budgetary process in order to score their little political points of voting against the budget, however they didn't expect the Greens vote the same way!!

Oh, Patrick Harvie should have accepted £33 million, compromise works two ways Patrick.
2

 sm753,

28/01/2009 23:21:33

The curious thing is how the parties' private polling is affecting their stances.

Labour / SNP - have a go

Tories - wait for Cameron, and let the "shy Scots Tories" return to the fold

Libs - suicide?
3

Peter Curran,

Kirkliston 29/01/2009 00:24:53
Patrick Harvie failed to rise above his legitimate attempt to secure funding for a key Green policy, and signally failed to understand that his pivotal vote risked bringing down the elected government of Scotland.

Did he really think that delivering the nation into the hands of Labour, the architects of the Iraq war and proponents of all things nuclear, would deliver a green agenda for the nation? Or that the pathetic passion and principle-free LibDems could offer anything? Or was he simply drunk with the power of his miniscule party to wreck the last best hope for Scotland - the Scottish National Party?

A poll in a Scottish newspaper today showed over 90% support for the SNP's budget. Labour displayed the cynicism and total disregard for Scotland that is now their tarnished hallmark. We expected nothing more from this discredited party, but from the Green Party, we expected more. From the Tories, we mercifully got the sound commonsense that epitomises the style of Annabel Goldie. I have never voted Tory in my life, but I do believe that, under her leadership, her party has shown real statesmanship.

However, one way or another, the SNP administration will survive, and be re-elected with a real working majority, whenever the Scottish election come. The Scottish people will recognise a Unionist betrayal of their interests when they see one.
4

karin.m,

29/01/2009 00:25:05
2 oh labour wont to have a go come on then if you think your hard enough. cant wait lol
5

Shave,

Edinburgh 29/01/2009 00:44:59
#3 Peter

The person in best position to understand the pivotal role held by the Greens was Swinney - it was him that was counting (on) the votes.

Harvie was being asked to vote for a budget that included money for the £500m 5 mile road that is the M74 extension. Swinney should have known he had to make a concession, and he should have made sure of the deal earlier. And the insulation programme is, after all, a very good proposal.

Thankfully Swinney gets a second chance to do a deal. Hopefully the Greens will get their £33m guaranteed and the Tories don't cause trouble (unlikely but possible).
6

,

29/01/2009 01:45:19
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
7

Embra Don,

29/01/2009 01:50:46
It should be possible to find some extra money for insulation out of compromises made to try to get Labour on board as they are going to vote against it anyway. Or would that be vindictive?
8

SNP hypocrisy,

29/01/2009 02:59:43
Annabel Goldie is out of touch! I wonder what traditional Scots Tory voters make of her treachery of supporting the SNP.

If nothing else has come out of this, it has highlighted her poor leadership of the Scottish Conservatives and Unionists. When will this bombastic dictatorial person step aside; she has now damaged the Tories in Scotland. Unionists supporting Nationalists is just unthinkable, in fact it's very disturbing.

Yesterday Annabel Goldie shared the shameful defeat of the SNP, after attempting to save the skins of Salmond's failing government. The Tories need a new leader and fast. Someone who will not be bought over by miniscule concessions from a bitter party led by a smug leader who intends to lay waste to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

If the Scots Tories have already bailed on Britain, we should be told.
9

SNP hypocrisy,

29/01/2009 03:06:49
1. You've either been swiggin' the buckie or listening to the SNP fibs and propaganda. Labour and the Liberal Democrats are clearly not worried about an election. In fact, bring it on.

The only parties that should be genuinely worried about an election are the SNP and the Tories, the SNP because frankly they got in last time by a complete fluke where 150,000 legally cast votes were not counted, and Salmond had his name on every ballot slip which misled many voters as to whom they were actually voting for. The Tories will suffer for supporting the SNP.

The Greens after this week will go up in a lot of people's estimation, there is little doubt they will survive this and might even improve their representation in an election.
10

Longdirk Maceth,

NZ 29/01/2009 03:26:16
3, good post sir, as for you SNP hypocrisy it's usually best that if you have nothing intelligent to say, then keep your mouth shut.
11

KampungHighlander,

Jakarta 29/01/2009 03:51:13
#10 Hypocrisy

"I wonder what traditional Scots Tory voters make of her treachery of supporting the SNP. If nothing else has come out of this, it has highlighted her poor leadership of the Scottish Conservatives and Unionists."

You may be unaware but the Unionist sectarians left the Scottish Conservative party to form their own party.

The new Scottish Unionist Party has 117 members at last count. A few less than the Tories.

If you want more information it can be found at http://www.scottishunionistparty.co.uk/

Or alternatively you can just ask AM2 when the next meeting is or just follow any cretin you see wandering around in an Orange Sash.

Like the Nazi Party they also have a youth wing so you can indoctrinate your children with sectarian nonsense.


12

 sm753,

29/01/2009 07:15:14
11

One thing to come out of this is to remind the Nats, and the electorate, that the so-called "Government" is a minority and serves at the pleasure of Parliament.

Good.
13

missing home,

la verne 29/01/2009 08:20:21
#10, she has now damaged the Tories in Scotland.
Bwa ha ha ha ha...
oh, wait, maybe I've been away too long?
The Tories, as I recall, only ever stood a farts chance in a gale of wind in a few select areas of Scotland. Labour wiz the working man's party...aye right, if going to the buroo's your idea of a day's work.

I'd hoped, still hope, the SNP would mark a change in the two party mindset birthright of the populace. It won't happen unless politicians vote for the country rather than their party political pride.

14

mr angry,

ayrshire 29/01/2009 08:25:24
11&15. What a pair of dummies, or is it what a dummy.
15

Talorthane,

29/01/2009 08:27:38
#15

"One thing to come out of this is to remind the Nats, and the electorate, that the so-called "Government" is a minority and serves at the pleasure of Parliament."


One thing that may yet come out of this is a larger SNP majority.
16

Rev. S. Campbell,

Bath 29/01/2009 09:25:14
#11 "The only parties that should be genuinely worried about an election are the SNP and the Tories, the SNP because frankly they got in last time by a complete fluke"

I expect that's why the SNP's ratings have improved with every poll taken since 2007, and the Tories have taken a clear third place from the Lib Dems, consigning a party who were in government in April 2007 to a distant last place. I believe the last proper Holyrood-voting-intentions poll (ie not a fragment of a UK/Westminster one) put the SNP on 42% to Labour's 25%. It's terribly amusing how you somehow interpret these figures to mean Labour surging back to power on a wave of popular support.

We agree on one thing, though: election? Bring it on.
17

Ewan Randall,

29/01/2009 09:54:53
I am puzzled as to why, when the Scottish government went into partnership with the greens, the Scottish government would treat the greens so poorly over this issue?

Were the greens proposals not a benefit to the poor tax payer and poor alike?

Were the proposals not to be a benefit to the environment too?

Hasn’t the Scottish government made a commitment to the environment and the poor in trying to make thing better in the future?

Why did the Scottish Government suddenly believe the greens proposals should be put into negotiations when they would have known of them in advance, and could have asked for a figure to be considered in advance?
18

wee weegie,

29/01/2009 10:34:41
What a complete farce the ZanuLabour party has become. They are following Mugabes lead in opposing everything for the sake of opposition. They claim they are wanting more appreniceships. Where are they going to come from and with the state Brown has made of the economy, where are they going to work?
At least Brown was right he has abolished 'boom and bus' now we have 'bust and buster'.
The SNP have a right to get their budget through, they have manifesto committments to fulfill. If the ZanuLabour and the Libdums can't get agreement on their so called 'priorities', then they should abstain or put forward their budget's. Then we will see how much consensus they have. There is no point in saying its for the government to produce a budget then voting against it with no alternative.
19

alanh,

ek 29/01/2009 10:44:39
#15 sm

"One thing to come out of this is to remind the Nats, and the electorate, that the so-called "Government" is a minority and serves at the pleasure of Parliament.

Good."

does that mean that you anti-snp drones and the nu liebore , north brittian dept, will now shut up when they bleat on and on and on trying to politically point score when our govt are unable to bring forward some manifesto commitments due to the fact that they are a minority govt???????? No i didnt think so , hypocrits one and all
20

Ewan Randall,

29/01/2009 11:00:43
(#21) – (wee weegie) – What makes you believe so strongly that the opposition parties in Scotland are opposing everything for the sake of opposition?

What is there about the Scottish government’s proposals that will turn the Scottish economy around?

I agree the SNP government do have the right to get their budget through, but only if the representatives of the majority of the electorate believe it to be worthy, and do they?
21

alanh,

ek 29/01/2009 11:11:19
#23 ewan

what makes you believe that the opposition parties in scotland are NOT opposing everything for the sake of opposition?
22

Ewan Randall,

29/01/2009 11:24:15
(#24) - (alanh) - Do you not think it is not down to the same lack of evidence you are working from?
23

Miss H,

29/01/2009 11:49:39
2 Not sure I agree with that.

The way I read the Scottish samples the two parties with most to gain are SNP and Tories - Tories showing quite remarkable. Though these are Westminster voting intentions - so SNP vote for Scottish parly will be higher and Tories possibly a tad lower.

Agree Lib Dems would be committing suicide which is why they will back down.

24

wee weegie,

29/01/2009 12:15:50
#23 ewan

How about this for starters. What was it Zanulabour wanted, exactly?

Voting down the budget impacts upon plans for:

* an additional £15million in accelerated investment from Scottish Enterprise for Edinburgh's Bioquarter.

* Millions of pounds of accelerated investment in affordable housing.

* An additional £3.5 million in funding for Edinburgh's capital city status.

* A council tax freeze. Council tax rises of around 15% could be necessary without a share of the £70million funding for the freeze.

* Rates reductions and rates removals for thousands of small businesses in Scotland.

* Extra police, payrises in the public sector, and additional funding for the NHS.
25

alanh,

ek 29/01/2009 12:51:50
#25 ewan

sorry dont understand your question with the double negatives.

but the reason I think nu liebore are simply opposing for the sake of it is that they got some of what they demanded but spat the dummy cos they didnt get everything. They seem to want everyone else to compromise but are unable to do so themselves. Or that is the way it looks to me and they are the ones playing fast and loose with our country at a very bad time for them , and us

are you unable to answer any questions?
26

Luigiana,

Aberdeen 29/01/2009 13:43:14
Labour's anti-budget vote was nothing more than bravado. After last year's budget vote humiliation, they really had to act tough. The last thing Ian Grey wanted was Scottish Labour to look weak and feeble again. The second last thing he wanted was Scottish Labour to look ridiculous!

Ah well, the lesser of two evils, I suppose?

Prediction - this (latest) budget fiasco could be the straw that breaks the Labour-LibDem alliance. Labour now has to continue it's tough stance, whereas the LibDems must surely be thinking of their very survival. Trapped by their own mischief-making. Doh!
27

Doh,

29/01/2009 16:00:01
#26 Miss H

The LibDems are at about the samelevel of support in the opnion polls as they were at the last Scottish election.

Maybe it would be suicide for the SNP to force a new election on such an indifferent budget.

The budget is only remarkable for its lack of imagination. Neither putting taxes up or down just fiddling about.
28

Miss H,

29/01/2009 17:36:35
30 No they aren't. The highest I have seen was 12%. http://www.yougov.com/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/TPA%20results%2009%2001%2008.pdf

They are on 7% in this one:
http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/ST-12-Dec_results.pdf

A comparison 'poll of polls' between 2007 and 2008 shows the Lib Dems losing 11%.

http://www.snp.org/node/14695

They are in trouble - and they know it. The SNP vote is holding up on the other hand in the polls.So we would go into an election from a strong position.

It's not going to happen though - today has made that clear. Back pedalling all over the place.

 

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