There are lots of red eyes about the place, the SNP really did work their socks off. But so did Labour, the difference being that their campaign was kept out of the media spotlight. Well done to Gordon Banks, who has a fight on his hands to keep his
own seat. If he runs his own campaign, he may be able to pull it off!
As for other elements to look for after the dust has settled: questions over the idea that interest rates were cut by 1.5 points on the day of a by election (Lindsay Roy even mentioned in his victory speech that interest rates were at a record low under Gordon Brown). One other point: the result further down the sheet shows that the Liberal Democrat vote in Scotland is collapsing. Its supporters are drifting to the other main players: the SNP and to a lesser degree Labour, allowing the Tories to capitalise.
What a night. The only thing predictable about by elections these days is that they deliver surprise. Every time. Over and out.
23.39: Labour sources reckon they have "won out of the park".
Another, more moderate source admitted: "I am much happier than earlier in the day, put it that day. We are certainly ahead in all the places we should be."
One SNP source, clearly smarting from the shock, tells me "The local care charges scare played better than we thought. We have lost. We may have halved their majority but that's about it. Still, it shows there is all to play for at the next election." Labour's majority is 10,664 so the SNP has made an incursion, but not an ambush, possibly losing by around 5,000.
Voter turnout is 36,290, which is 52.37%, massive for a by election. Postal vote returns are 80 per cent, which is where Labour also reckons it is strong. These account for ten per cent of the vote.
I got a text from someone close to Number 10 this morning telling me that I was right to doubt in yesterday's blog to say that I was doubtful of received wisdom. And so it is.
23.25: TOLD you it was too early to call. I am now hearing that Labour has "won boxes it shouldn't have won" and other parties reckon that Lindsay Roy could win. Expect much more zig-zagging throughout the night.
23.09: WAY way too early to pin this result down with any accuracy as polls just closed an hour ago...BUT Labour seem a bit despondent both in London and up here. Meanwhile the SNP are far more jittery than several hours ago. One source said: "It's tighter than we would like but we are still hopeful."
What gives the Nats hope is that the turnout in SNP strong wards, such as Markinch, is 60 per cent, while Labour dominated areas are reporting a 40 per cent turnout. The Tories reckon they have pipped the Lib Dems, but may still lose their deposit. We will know in about 90 minutes which way the wind is blowing.
