Analysis: PM slams the brakes on Salmond's momentum

IT is official. As of this morning, the honeymoon is over. The extended feel-good factor which Alex Salmond and the SNP had carried with them since last May came to a halt in the early hours of this morning when the Nationalists failed to take Glenrothes from Labour.

Mr Salmond had predicted a "political earthquake", he had forecast an SNP win and he had been so sure that he wagered his own money on the result. But it did not happen.

This result will hurt the Nationalists because they had expected to win. It did not matter that the SNP needed to overturn a 10,664 Labour majority to take the seat; the Nationalists expected to win because their canvass returns told them they would do so – they had won the corresponding seat at last year's Scottish elections and this really was within their grasp.

Normally, the failure to overturn such a big Labour majority in a traditional Labour area would be greeted with nothing more than disappoin-ted shrugs, but Glenrothes was different. The SNP felt this was its seat from the moment the by-election was announced.

The crucial effect of Labour's victory is that it has halted the momentum the SNP had built up from last May's Holyrood elections, through its victory in Glasgow East. That will make a huge difference to the psychological attitude of MSPs and MPs of both parties when they reconvene at their parliaments next week.

But what of Labour? This was the victory the party needed desperately in attempting to halt a slide towards ignominious defeat at the next General Election. The win this morning has allowed Labour to take a step forward politically and electorally.

Just six weeks ago, Gordon Brown was facing open calls from senior members of his party for a leadership election. He was not expected to survive as Prime Minister beyond the turn of the year, with Glenrothes predicted as the defeat which would send him into political oblivion.

However, the global economic crisis gave Mr Brown a chance to re-establish himself as an experienced leader capable of tackling the challenges facing the country. His political recovery has now been boosted by this result, which will help silence critics within his party. This will also allow Mr Brown to turn his attention away from internal party wrangles and on to the Conservative challenge.

Glenrothes represents a major triumph for Labour in Scotland and a personal victory for the Prime Minister.

Mr Brown decided to ditch the "convention" preventing prime ministers from campaigning in by-elections and visited the constituency twice. His wife, Sarah Brown, was there even more often and the political capital invested by both Browns – and a host of Cabinet members – was considerable.

This was a high-risk strategy, but it paid off. Now, as a result, it looks as if Mr Brown himself won the by-election.

Momentum is everything in politics. Going into the Glenrothes by-election, it was with the SNP. Now, as the ballot boxes are packed away and the posters are taken down around the Fife constituency, that momentum has been stopped.

It is far too early, and there is much more to be done, before that momentum is transferred completely to the Labour Party. Indeed, that may never happen. For Labour, Glenrothes may prove to be a temporary blip, a short respite in an overall downward spiral.

But for those involved in Labour's campaign, this morning's result will come as the most welcome and enjoyable piece of news any of them have had for quite some considerable time.