Blair braced for huge revolt over Trident renewal

Key quote

"While we have been having this debate these last six months, Iran and North Korea have continued with their nuclear programmes and China has test-fired new ballistic missiles - not exactly signs of nations hanging on our every word to see what leadership we might show" - LEE WILLETTS, ROYAL UNITED SERVICES INSTITUTE

Story in full IT IS set to be one of parliament's most tumultuous weeks since Labour came to power in 1997, with a Commons vote that will determine whether Britain retains a nuclear arsenal until 2050 and beyond.

The last time MPs debated an issue of such grave importance for Britain's security and global standing was in 2003, and, just as the decision to go to war in Iraq opened deep fissures within the Labour ranks, so the government's plan to replace the Trident missile system now threatens to tear the party asunder - as many as 100 of Labour's 352 MPs could vote against the government on Wednesday night.

Most troubling for the government, the rebellion extends far beyond the "usual suspects" - at least one minister and several junior parliamentary aides will quit in opposition to replacing Trident, which critics say could cost as much as £76 billion.

The government insists remaining a nuclear-armed power is the only "responsible" choice in an uncertain world, and rejects suggestions that replacing Trident will undermine diplomatic attempts to stop states such as Iran and North Korea seeking nuclear weapons.

Should the government get its way, the next generation of nuclear missiles, like Trident, will be borne on submarines sailing from Faslane on the Clyde. And Scotland is leading the resistance, both inside parliament and beyond it.

Nigel Griffiths, the South Edinburgh MP, is said to be ready to vote against the government and therefore quit as deputy leader of the Commons. Jim Devine, who inherited the late Robin Cook's Livingston seat, will resign as a parliamentary private secretary, as will Stephen Pound, an aide to Hazel Blears, the Labour chairman.

A BBC survey of 101 Labour back-benchers found at least 64 were prepared to oppose the renewal of Trident. With potentially dozens of other undeclared rebels lying in wait, Wednesday could see the biggest revolt since 1997.

It comes despite intense personal lobbying by Tony Blair. The Prime Minister is understood to have called several "moderate" rebels to No 10 last week for one-on-one meetings. According to one source, he "pleaded" with his MPs not to defy a three-line Labour whip on the issue. He will continue lobbying this week, as will Gordon Brown, the Chancellor.

Ominously for ministers, the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND) yesterday said more senior Labour figures were expected to come out against Mr Blair. John Ainslie, of CND Scotland, said 14 out of the 39 Scottish Labour MPs had previously signalled their objection to Trident, along with 12 Liberal Democrats and six SNP MPs.

This means more than half of the 59 Scottish MPs are likely to vote against the government.

The Vanguard subs that carry the Trident missiles will start retiring after 2020, and ministers say the lead-times on building a new fleet are so long that a decision must be taken now. But critics say the timing of this week's vote owes more to politics than to military or industrial causes.

"It is being rushed through as part of Tony Blair's legacy," Mr Ainslie said.

Thanks to the support of the Tories, the government is in little danger of losing the vote, but ministers are frantically manoeuvring to put pressure on the rebels to fall into line.

Des Browne, the Defence Secretary, yesterday accused the rebels of ignoring the security nuclear weapons bring. "They sleep soundly in their beds at night because we have nuclear weapons," he said.

Hillary Benn, the International Development Secretary and Labour deputy leadership contender, said replacing Trident was "the right thing to do" because "in the differently dangerous world in which we live now, it doesn't make sense for us to give up our nuclear weapons".

Behind the scenes, the Labour whips' office is using "every trick in the book" to stop Labour MPs voting against the government. At least one would-be rebel has been sent on a foreign "fact-finding" trip this week, while those showing loyalty are being offered incentives, not least the jobs likely to be vacated by Messrs Griffiths, Devine and Pound.

But a last-minute legal row is hampering Mr Blair's attempts to win his party round.

Ministers are refusing to publish crucial advice on the legality of renewing Britain's nuclear deterrent, antagonising Labour rebels and other critics.

The anti-nuclear lobby has questioned the legality of any decision to replace Trident, arguing that the international Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) - to which Britain is a signatory - forbids the construction of new weapons.

But the government rejects those arguments, insisting in a white paper last year that "retention of a nuclear deterrent is fully consistent with our international legal obligations," including Article 6 of the NPT.

That clause commits signatories to take "effective measures" to end the nuclear arms race and bring about nuclear disarmament, and ministers argue that that does not prohibit replacing existing weapons.

Officials have privately confirmed to The Scotsman that ministers took legal advice from Lord Goldsmith, the Attorney General, when drawing up the white paper. But the Ministry of Defence, the Foreign Office and the Attorney General's office all refused to say what Lord Goldsmith had advised about the legality of replacing Trident.

His involvement in the Trident decision has led to comparisons with the decision to go to war in Iraq. The attorney's advice that the 2003 invasion was legal was the focus of a protracted row that ended with its publication by the government in 2005.

Gordon Prentice, a Labour MP who plans to vote against renewal on Wednesday, has tabled parliamentary questions asking for Lord Goldsmith's advice on nuclear weapons to be published but he has been rebuffed.

Ministers are treating the legal advice like a "state secret", Mr Prentice said. "If the government is going to say unequivocally that it has the right to renew Trident within the NPT, it should be quite possible for ministers to explain that position to parliament by publishing the advice."

The Attorney General's office said: "In accordance with long-standing convention, we are not able to disclose outside government the fact or the substance of the law officers' advice."

Meanwhile, Lee Willetts, of the Royal United Services Institute, a security think-tank, dismissed suggestions that Britain could set a significant international example by disarming. "While we have been having this debate these last six months, Iran and North Korea have continued with their nuclear programmes and China has test-fired new ballistic missiles - not exactly signs of nations hanging on our every word to see what leadership we might show," he said.

THE THREATS THAT JUSTIFY DETERRENT

THE government argues that Britain's nuclear weapons would only ever be used in the event of an extreme threat to the national interest. But Trident was designed and built as a Cold War weapon that could be used against the USSR. With the fall of communism, what are the threats ministers believe justify another generation of nuclear weapons?

• RUSSIA
Moscow is investing heavily in new missile technology, inspiring recent American attempts to relaunch the Star Wars missile defence shield. Russia has also been exporting military technology to states including Iran and Syria. And with Mr Putin due to step down next year, some analysts fear he will be replaced by an even more assertive nationalist.

• IRAN
Tehran insists that it is only planning to build a civilian nuclear power industry, but most Western analysts believe the country is also seeking to develop a military capability, possibly to expand Iran's regional influence, possibly as an insurance policy against US hostility.

• NORTH KOREA
The Stalinist "Hermit State" has made no secret of its nuclear programme, which its erratic leader Kim Jong-Il has used as a key bargaining chip in his painful relations with the outside world.

North Korean rhetoric over nuclear weapons ebbs and flows, but there is now little doubt that the country has acquired some sort of military capability. North Korea conducted an underground nuclear explosive test in October.

• THE UNKNOWN
With a lead time of more than 15 years and a life span of up to 30 years, any decision about a new nuclear weapons system must be based on long-term calculations. To a degree then, Trident is an insurance policy against an uncertain future.