FOR the first time in years, it appears that the rural vote could be pivotal in some constituencies during next month's Holyrood elections.
However, Scotland is not the only part of the EU to be subject to election fever - France is set to choose a new president to succeed Jacques Chirac. Farmers' votes will be equally important in that country, which has historically shown an appreciati
on of its food producers.
That much was evident during the 2003 negotiations over the reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP).
The thrust of the new CAP was to decouple support from production. The French government managed to agree on a package that maintained a huge degree of direct subsidies, especially for its specialist beef sector.
Analysts in the UK predicted that severing the link between numbers of cattle and the new single farm payment - the measure which replaced about a dozen former subsidy schemes - would inevitably lead to a reduction in the beef breeding herd.
Those opinions are now being borne out, with succeeding census figures revealing a decline in the number of suckler cows on farms and crofts.
Scotland has now shed almost 10,000 cows in just over three years and that trend is set to continue unless measures are put in place to encourage production of beef.
This contrasts with the latest French census figure from the official agency charged with compiling the relevant statistics, Argeste. As of the end of November 2006, the French suckler herd rose by 1.2 per cent to 4.07 million cows. This is the second year running when French cow numbers have risen.
Beef farmers in France still receive the equivalent of the suckler cow premium as well as a headage payment on slaughter cattle. Prices for finished cattle in France are lower than 12 months ago for young bulls. However, the trade for prime heifers at 3.34 (227p) per kg is substantially ahead of the latest UK average of 208p per kg.
Politicians in France are determined that the rural economy should not be sacrificed on the altar of unfettered free trade. The various presidential candidates have made it clear that farmers must be shielded from the desire of the World Trade Organisation to remove all import tariffs.
Ireland will also go to the polls soon, and the specialist farming press in that country has been carrying full-page advertisements from the two leading parties. Last summer, Dublin introduced a payment of 100 (£68) for every suckler cow so as to maintain production.
Scotland now has a scheme labouring under the moniker of the "national envelope". This allows breeders to claim roughly £70 on the first ten calves and £35 on subsequent numbers.
This device has not been a great success and has been funded by siphoning off 11 per cent off the payments that farmers would have received under the previous regime.
This measure of supporting suckler cow production is not favoured by NFU Scotland.
A spokesman said: "It's far too complicated and has resulted in additional paperwork, which is the very thing that CAP reforms promised there would be less of over time.
"What we need is an effective rural development programme for Scotland, and that is something the Executive has failed to deliver.
"Be assured, once the votes are counted next month, we will have this subject very close to the top of our agenda."
