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North Sea set to be Britain's carbon dustbin

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Published Date: 24 April 2009
THE government yesterday gave the go-ahead for a new generation of coal-fired power stations which will see a proportion of their carbon dioxide emissions buried underground – much of it likely to be beneath the North Sea.
Energy and Climate Change Secretary Ed Miliband announced a plan to build four power stations using the as-yet unproven carbon capture or clean coal technology.

The cost of carbon capture will see consumers having to pay a new levy of 2 per cent on their gas bills, averaging at about £8 per year for each household.

And it has also emerged that the North Sea seems likely to become one of the biggest dumps for in the world.

The government plan predicts "a new future for the North Sea industry, capitalising on the UK's abundance of offshore storage sites for ".

The Scotsman also understands that the Scottish Government and Edinburgh University will shortly make an announcement on their plans to transform the seabed of porous rock into one of the world's largest dumps, using a network of pipes already in place for the oil and gas industry.

An industry source said: "We are expecting an announcement from the Scottish Government and Edinburgh University, regarding work they've done on this, next week."

It is likely that Longannet power station, in Fife, will be one of the first to test the new technology on an industrial scale.

Following Mr Miliband's announcement that there will now be four "test" power stations, instead of just one, Longannet's owner ScottishPower said it could start by 2014, faster than its rivals.

Longannet was also yesterday endorsed as the best place to start the tests by the environment campaigners WWF.

The move by the government is part of efforts to corner the technology for carbon capture in the world market, but also an effort to offset a potential crisis with one-third of UK power stations under threat of closure for breaking new EU rules which are set to come in shortly.

It follows the announcement in the Budget that the government is setting mandatory reduction targets of 34 per cent to 2020 relative to 1994's level.

The success of carbon capture is vital for Scotland's energy future, with the Scottish Government already blocking any new nuclear power stations and claiming carbon capture can provide the environmentally friendly base-supply to back up energy produced from renewables, such as wind and the sea.

The technology will come at a small cost of 2 per cent on household bills, which will mean suppliers using clean coal technology can ask more for their production and the cost will be spread across the whole network.

There will be £90 million from the government to pay for upfront studies and 180 million (£160 million) from the European Union for the first project to get the go-ahead.

Mr Miliband's announcement also means that no more traditional coal power stations will be built in Britain and only ones with clean coal technology will be permitted.

"The future of coal in our energy mix poses the starkest dilemma we face: it is a polluting fuel, but is used across the world because it is cheap and it is flexible enough to meet fluctuations in demand for power," Mr Miliband said.

"In order to ensure that we maintain a diverse energy mix, we need new coal-fired power stations, but only if they can be part of a low-carbon future."

He told MPs that the technology could reduce emissions from fossil fuels by up to 90 per cent, but there had to be a global effort to develop this technology and the UK was in a strong position to lead this charge.

The Scotsman understands that ScottishPower has been given positive soundings from the UK government about the Longannet project.

The company believes that, if the go-ahead can be given to start in 2014, it could develop technology that would be sold around the world and built next to all 50,000 fossil-fuel power stations globally.

Although the technology is officially unproven, it has been shown to work at laboratory and in medium-scale tests, so ScottishPower is confident that it can perform on a large, industrial scale.

ScottishPower chief executive Nick Horler said: "In such difficult economic times, we welcome the government's renewed and additional commitment to demonstrating carbon capture and storage.

"This recognises the tremendous opportunity the UK has to lead the world with this technology and create new skills, jobs and opportunities for growth in the low-carbon sector.

"Continued momentum on the demonstration project and investment in a skills base is essential for the UK to take a real advantage in this emerging market and continue to lead the world in emission reductions."

He added that ScottishPower's parent company, Iberdrola – already a world leader in wind power – had committed to make the UK its global centre of excellence for carbon capture development.

ScottishPower's biggest rival is E.ON's proposal for a cluster of power stations based around Kingsnorth in Essex.

Yesterday, it put out the results of a study which showed it could save 28 billion tonnes of a year.

However, ScottishPower believes its project can be ready more quickly, because E.ON's bid needs a new power station.

In addition, the increase from one to four industrial-sized tests allows both options to go forward at their own pace.

The announcement yesterday was welcomed by environmental groups, with the WWF coming out in favour of Longannet to get the nod first.

Dr Sam Gardner, the policy officer at WWF Scotland, said: "Scotland has the potential to lead the development of carbon capture storage technology, with the proposals for CCS retrofit at Longannet, the potential for retrofit at Peterhead and the access to significant carbon storage reservoirs in the North Sea oil and gas fields."

Greenpeace executive director John Sauven added: "At last, Ed Miliband is demonstrating welcome signs of climate leadership in the face of resistance from Whitehall officials and Cabinet colleagues.

"He is the first minister in 12 years to throw down the gauntlet to the energy companies and demand that they start taking climate change seriously."

However, political opponents were less than convinced about Mr Miliband's announcement yesterday. Despite his assurances of no new "dirty" coal power stations, the Liberal Democrats claimed that the minister had failed properly to rule them out.

Martin Horwood, Lib Dem environment spokesman, said: "Ed Miliband has left the door wide open for more old-fashioned, dirty, coal power stations, with no guarantee they will ever be cleaned up.

"He may have his fingers crossed that CCS technology will work before it's too late, but it's a gamble that could lead to a climate change catastrophe."

GRAPHIC: HOW CARBON CAPTURE WORKS



LOST CHANCE

THERE are high hopes in Scotland the government announcement yesterday will come as compensation for disappointment in 2007.

Then a cutting edge carbon capture project based in Peterhead led by BP and Scottish and Southern Electricity was wound up after just two years because of UK government dithering over whether or not it would qualify for the subsidy it needed to continue. The project is now being tested in Abu Dhabi.

The project, which aimed to isolate the produced by a natural gas-fired generator plant and pump into the empty Miller field under the North Sea, had been pushed by Alex Salmond before he became First Minister.

Its failure was held up as an example of why Scotland should have more control of its energy policy. In the end it failed to meet government criteria because it did not involve clean coal.

Now it is hoped that Longannet can lead the way in carbon capture and the North Sea will become one of the world's biggest storage areas.

SNP Westminster energy spokesman Mike Weir said: "This announcement is clearly better late than never. Scotland could already have been at the forefront of carbon capture and storage if UK Ministers had not pulled the rug from under the Peterhead project."

He added that Scotland has some of Europe's largest carbon storage reserves in our North Sea oil and gas fields combined with the expertise on how to access them.



How it works and how much it will cost you

What is carbon capture and storage?


A: Carbon capture and storage (CCS) catches , which poses a threat to the climate, and stores it permanently underground, for example in old gasfields, cutting output from a power station by up to 90 per cent.

How does it work?

There are several ways of capturing the carbon, and of storing it. Post-combustion capture takes the out after the fuel has been burnt, using chemicals which separate it out of the flue gas.

Another method converts the fuel into and hydrogen. This could be used to produce hydrogen for running cars.

There is also oxyfuel combustion, which can also be retrofitted and involves burning the fuel in pure oxygen to create water and , which can then be captured easily.

And does it work?

Pilot projects have demonstrated its use on a small-scale – up to 30MW, compared to the 300MW net output proposed today – while most of the major components of CCS are already in use in other processes.

Are there any other problems?

The main concern is cost. Yesterday Energy Secretary Ed Miliband acknowledged that funding to the tune of "billions of pounds" would be needed over a long period. A trial plant could cost between £750 million and £1.5 billion – on top of the cost of the new power plant.

How will it be paid for?

The government plans to set up a funding mechanism for the four trial projects. The cost is expected to add around 2 per cent to the average household bill by 2020.



Price of carbon capture is worth paying in quest to reduce emissions

Analysis: Stuart Haszeldine


THIS is a very welcome announcement by the UK government and not before time. It is what many of us have been asking the government to do for the last four or five years and provides a balanced and realistic strategy to transform energy production in the UK.

It is absolutely essential if we are to reduce our carbon emissions in the future and could be highly profitable for Scotland and the UK as a whole, turning us into world leaders.

There are energy companies all around the UK waiting to try to set up carbon capture projects, but the main problem has always been cost.

Now that the government has agreed to go for a feeder levy – which allows energy suppliers to charge more for the power and spread that cost around the whole network – we seem to have a way forward to start paying for it. It is hoped that once the technology is up and running then costs will be greatly reduced.

One important aspect about this announcement is that it will allow the UK government to test several methods, which will allow them to find out which is better at storing and the most cost effective.

There is the post-combustion method of separating after the fuel has been burned, which was the original UK government competition."

But there are other methods which can now be looked at such as pre-combustion which converts the fuel into and hydrogen before it is burnt, and has the advantage of providing supplies of hydrogen as fuel.

Then there is oxy-fuel combustion, which can also be retrofitted and involves burning the fuel in pure oxygen to create water. It will also put Britain in a strong position when it comes to selling this technology around the world.

In terms of the North Sea there is huge potential for carbon storage in the former oil fields and in the aquifer below the surface, which is currently just full of salt water. This certainly means that carbon storage in the North Sea is back on the table and that it will have a very large role to play.

In the future it is hoped 50 per cent of energy will be supplied by renewables, part of the rest will come from nuclear plants in England, but most of it will be provided by carbon capture plants.

The technology has been shown to work at laboratory and middle engineering level, so it is not unproven.

What is needed now is for it to be tested on an industrial scale and then we will be able to see if it can be done with large quantities and cost effectively.

In the end, if we are to maintain power supplies and reduce damaging carbon emissions then this technology is a price worth paying.

• Stuart Haszeldine is Professor of Sedimentary Geology at the School of Geosciences at the Edinburgh University.

Page 1 of 1

 
1

Don Roberto,

24/04/2009 00:14:14
Shock horror, Westminster does something right for once...
2

Charles Linskaill,

Edinburgh 24/04/2009 00:27:59

"North Sea set to be Britain's carbon dustbin"

Maybe the time is right to stop eating fish.


3

,

24/04/2009 00:50:29
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4

,

24/04/2009 00:51:51
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5

Abel Magwitch,

24/04/2009 01:12:05
I was interested to see that Edinburgh University was going to be involved in this project. Obviously CO2 capture and storage involves chemistry and gas absorption and fluid mechanics, so it relates strongly to chemical engineering. I had a look at the website of the E.U.Chemical Engineering Department which is a very good department with an international reputation. Not a word about the CO2 storage, very mysterious. Maybe some intra-university politics going on here.
6

Edward,

24/04/2009 01:19:30
Ed Milliband = HYPOCRITE!!!
When that t@sser was up in Scotland for the PR stunt called a 'uk Cabinet meeting in Scotland' He argued that the SNP Government were wrong with Coal fired New technology power stations and carbon capture and that the Scottish government should be embracing nuclear power instead.
So what changed his mind?
Perhaps its something to do with E.On being involved with the carbon capture . Labour are in the back pocket of E.on!
7

Fifi la Bonbon,

24/04/2009 06:22:33
Go on, SNP fans, show us how this is Yet Another Example of English Oppression which Must Be Resisted until the Yoke Of Domination is Thrown Off by the Suffering People of Scotland and we head on off to the Shining Uplands of Freedom.
8

westcider,

Isle of Lewis 24/04/2009 06:40:41
#7 Fifi.
You've just said it all really!
Once again the lumbering westminster government comes panting along three years or more behind the S.N.P. looking for ideas.
9

It's me!,

24/04/2009 07:29:58
Who is Stuart Haszeldine?
10

Unimpressed one,

24/04/2009 07:53:35
"Greenpeace executive director John Sauven added: "At last, Ed Miliband is demonstrating welcome signs of climate leadership in the face of resistance from Whitehall officials and Cabinet colleagues."

But can we expect to see Green pees take action on burying power station waste material? Especially since by their own beliefs, CO2 is considered so 'lethal' a threat to the planet it will need to be guarded for the rest of time? Typical eco-luddite lunacy.
11

The Tin Man,

24/04/2009 08:05:25
Very good news, although perhaps more could be done to encourage less energy consumption in the first place. I hope the tax-payer is not going to get lumbered with North Sea oil platform decommissioning costs, though (about £300 million per platform)...

Now Salmond can say the Scotland is about to become the 'carbon-capture capital of the world'. He'll look good saying that...
12

Bigwull,

edinburgh 24/04/2009 08:06:24
Surely this gas could be used to force more oil out of the oilfields and extending the productive years longterm and does this mean the pits will need to be reopened too?
13

im brian and so is my wife,

edinburgh 24/04/2009 08:11:44
#4 i asked grahamski what he thought about,the plan to dump up to 36,000 tonnes of toxic waste(low radioactive waste) in falkirk,as a unionist and labour supporter,i got no answer ,so i asked if he would be happy when clusters of Leukaemia start appearing in falkirk(the planned dumping site)again zilch
if its so damn safe why is london not keeping its contaminated soil?
or is this what labour meant,when it was stated,that scotland would benefit from the london olympics,in what way?,more oncology nurses ?,as their toxic waste causes cancer,a smoke detector contains radio active material in ,small parts
so when the council had 20,000 stored in one spot ,how come they had to be removed for health and safety as the background radiation was too high,so what happens when this dumped soil does the same,too late to get rid of it,asradioactive particles will be spread with the wind
14

sceptic,

livingston 24/04/2009 08:12:42
All this to be paid for by 2% extra on electricity bills. Just an additional handicap on UK competitiveness to please the sandal and sackcloth brigade. I suppose we are meant to be surprised as yet more jobs are exported and our standard of living slips to third world levels.
15

greenhill,

24/04/2009 08:17:39
RE:"Rulesbutnotrulers,Federation, not separation 24/04/2009 07:51:50 : Why can't such vast R&D sums be thrown at renewables rather than at unsustainable technologies such as nuclear and fossil fuels?"
............................................

Because vast sums of money are not thrown away for new nuclear which overall makes a profit including decommisioning costs. Your contrast with nuclear is invalid.





16

,

24/04/2009 08:18:44
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17

TWC,

24/04/2009 08:19:06
How much are we charging for using our tip???
18

Mcsnagpile,

24/04/2009 08:22:31
I would like to think this is just a con, as I really do not want to consider the immense stupidity of the idea. It is certainly a way of getting out of the cost demobilisation in the North Sea and eventually handing it over to the tax payer in twenty years..
19

greenhill,

24/04/2009 08:24:58
This form of "clean" coal burning pumps out more radiation into the atmosphere than current methods of coal power production, which in turn pollutes with more than 100 times more radiation into the environment than nuclear. The “dirt” in coal is not just CO2

Lives are guaranteed to be lost because of this.
20

Conan the Librarian™,

24/04/2009 08:25:14
I think greenhill hit it on the head when he said the magic word, profit.
21

Don Roberto,

24/04/2009 08:28:01
#14 Tinman, remind us again how popular Iain Gray is with NUSLAB voters.
22

caithness,

24/04/2009 08:29:06
If there is manmade global warming how come the ice shelf in the Antartic is getting thicker? You don't see that reported in the media. Global warming may or may not be happening but the hysteria of the green lobby (swallowed by our politicians) is laughable. What's that saying? Something about repeating a lie long enough and loud enough and people will believe you?
23

Guy Wersh,

24/04/2009 08:31:35
"Who is Stuart Haszeldine?"
Geologist specialising in marine basin sediments:
From the School of Geosciences Edinburgh University (where it *does* mention carbon capture!)
Current research expertise:
Carbon dioxide capture, transport and geological storage (CCS),
Oil and gas geology of fossil fuels, petroleum geology. Oil and gas reserves and resources
Porosity and permeability of sub-surface fluid reservoirs, Diagenesis , Sandstone Cementation
Micro-analysis of mineral cements in sandstones and carbonates,
Disposal of radioactive waste ."
24

Yes We Can,

Ayr 24/04/2009 08:32:07
Is this headline meant to be Ironic? The North Sea has had vast deposits of Carbon (both gaseous and liquid)underneath it for thousands of years.
25

Guy Wersh,

24/04/2009 08:44:13
Caithness:
Which ice shelf do you refer to? There are currently nine ice shelves in the Antarctic.Does your data come from a single year or the past ten or twenty-five years of data?
26

Salthorse,

Room wi a view 24/04/2009 08:58:51
Traquir,

I remember this being reported a year ago and nothing is said about it, thanks for bringing it up again.

Perhaps the Scotsman would like to investigate this and support a move in Parliament to ban this use of Scotland as a "dumping ground" for the Union's waste?

Salmond - I hope your bloomin listening.

SH
27

The Strategist,

24/04/2009 09:19:16
CO2 sequestration is now an old hat technology. Modern thinking is that the CO2 can be used effectively to produce other liquid fuels by passing it through Algae based "reactors".

The Algae "eats" the CO2 and produces a form of oil that can then be used to produce diesel or other Algae variants can be used to produce hydrogen.

The residue from this process can then be used to add to things such as fish food for fish farming.

Although typically a lot of the work on this technology is being done in the USA there is actually a small Scottish company that has developed some very promising stuff in this area .....

http://www.scottishbioenergy.co.uk/
28

El Franko,

24/04/2009 09:37:37
How sad that we need to review the funding of academics these days before weighing their views in a worldly balance! Carbon capture is a shocking waste of resources, but very lucrative indeed for geological researchers. Was in Swift who wrote about the capturing of sunbeams in cucumbers? I think with a bit of AGW packaging, this could lead to a surge in grants for agricultural departments. Given that atmospheric CO2 is of almost negligible importance for our climate compared with water vapour, we are being quite simply insane in wasting our resources on it.
29

Vlad Tepes,

Snagov 24/04/2009 10:28:40
#31
You are misled (or misleading):
"Misleading Argument No2" at
http://royalsociety.org/page.asp?tip=1&id=6777
explains where you have gone wrong.
Cheers.
30

Harbinger,

The Planet Zog 24/04/2009 10:36:17
The carbon capture con is a smoke screen to get coal fired power stations built, because not only have this government run out of our money, they have also run out of our power supplies. Coal is indigenous, there is still lots of it and we should get on with using it without the horrendous and pointless cost of carbon capture.

The globe is not warming, increasing CO2 levels are not raising temperatures, the opposite is ocurring.

When will the media start to report the real situation instead of re-gurgitating press feeds from those benefiting from the scam?
31

Alternative (High-Octane) Fuel Head,

Edinburgh 24/04/2009 10:38:09
And just how much energy is all this "carbon captur" going to consume? Including the building of the plants to do it?

Here we have yet another load of bunkum from the lunatic fringes which has been seized upon by an incompetent government desparately trying to grasp at whatever straws are within their reach.

Vlad:

On the whole, I have a degree of respect for the Royal Society. Unfortunately, these days it has been hi-jacked to an extent by idiots peddling rubbish. Not everything that comes out of it these days is sacrosanct---and some of it isn't even correct. They have become slaves to junk science in certain quarters.
32

Arfur,

24/04/2009 10:51:52
Its pretty funny and pathetic of the unionists like Fifi and The Tin Man who have slated the SNP for their plans for (3 years before the UK gov) investment in renewables and coal carbon capture............now that the incompitants from down south have finally caught up - its a great idea.
33

Mad Jock,

East Lothian 24/04/2009 10:53:40
This is not as easy a prospect as the politicians would have you believe. Liquifying CO2 for pumping into existing depleted oil wells is one thing, but the reduced temperatures involved create their own problems.
The oil industry already uses water injection to boost production, and that is filtered seawater, which is free and unlimited.
When you pump a fluid into a reservoir sandstone, you need to allow another fluid to escape. You cannot compress a liquid, so unless there is pressure relief, you will simply fracture the formation.
This is all well and good if the fluid being produced is oil or gas, but if the reservoir is depleted, then it is more likely to be highly contaminated water. Where do you put that?
The pipe lines used to bring produced oil to the mainland could in all probability not be used to pump liquid CO2 back to a platform, as the reduced teperatures would simply freeze the surrounding water and freeze any water in the valves and pumps.
This idea has been oversimplified to appeal to the public in general, and the greens in particular.
34

peteedinburgh,

Edinburgh 24/04/2009 11:11:22
#20 How much are we charging for using our tip?

Probably nothing, Its not our tip. Its off Norfolk.
35

,

24/04/2009 11:29:34
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36

ecosseman,

facts not propaganda 24/04/2009 11:31:58
IF THE TECHNOLIGY IS SAFE,THEN THE SNP WERE RIGHT (AGAIN)TO TALK ABOUT THIS FEATURE MONTHS AGO.
A FREE SCOTLAND CAN CHARGE PLENTY FOR THIS WORK.

WHY HAS SCOTTISH FIRMS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE LONDON GAMES WORK.
I READ THAT WE HAVE BEEN GIVEN ONLY £10K SO FAR.

SO MUCH FOR THE UNION.

SO!

ROLL ON THE ELECTION!
37

El Franko,

24/04/2009 11:41:22
#32, thanks for the link, but I'm afraid that it doesn't do what you say. Circular arguments which boil down to CO2 is important because our models say CO2 is important because we set them up to have CO2 as important because we believe CO2 is important are not convincing. My horror at what has become of the Royal Society has just increased.
38

Tartan Viking,

24/04/2009 12:09:11
#16. Thought grahamski was a woman.
39

Tartan Viking,

24/04/2009 12:12:05
Don't suppose there's any chance of this carbon dustbin being in the part of the North Sea that Westminster stole from us when the re-drew the border trajectory in a ridiculous fashion?
40

seanie,

24/04/2009 12:20:49
The warming trend continues.

CO2 is a greenhouse gas. It's physical properties and role as such have been accepted science for over a century; since about 1860.

CO2 levels have risen signifcantly since the onset of industrialisation; from around 280ppm to around 385ppm. There is no scientific dispute on this.

That increase is due to human activity. We know this from the entirely uncontroversial fact that burning fossil fuels creates CO2, and the equally obvious fact that we've been burning a lot of fossil fuels since the onset of industrialisation.

The isotopic signature of CO2 in the atmosphere also confirms this.

That an increase in C02 should generally lead to an increase in temperature is not some wild and extravagant speculation. It's exactly what accepted scientific understanding tells us to expect.

It might be possible that there is some completely unknown and as yet to be discovered mechanism that is responsible for the warming trend. But that seems unlikely since we'd also have discover some hitherto completely unknown reason why the increase in CO2 isn't causing it.

Because basic physics tells us IT SHOULD BE.
41

me150,

24/04/2009 12:30:33
This is a joke, coal fired power is a thing from the past and should never be done in the 21st cetury.

Nuclear is the main way to go with renewables a close second but never coal.

42

me150,

24/04/2009 12:39:54
Seannie, still at it??

I assume you have no ability for independant thought or impatial analysis tehn.

Go on, bang your empty head.

You will never learn. By the time it is proven that you and the majority are totally wrong we will all be a pile of carbon waste in a wee box.
43

Alternative (High-Octane) Fuel Head,

Edinburgh 24/04/2009 12:58:53
OK Seeny. I'll bite. Let's just assume that you are correct.

Now.

What are you, personally, going to do about it?
44

seanie,

24/04/2009 13:02:31
The last five years were warmer than the five before, which in turn were warmer than the five before that.

And the first decade of the 21st century will be all but certainly warmer than the last decade of the 20th century, itself the warmest on record.

When average temperature goes up, that's called warming.
45

seanie,

24/04/2009 13:04:07
Personally?

Reduce my carbon footprint,and encourage others to do the same.
46

Hugh Roscombe,

24/04/2009 13:26:37
How about sun spots? Solar winds?
47

El Franko,

24/04/2009 13:27:24
#48, stop chanting that! Your brain will suffer even more damage than this greenie scam has already inflicted.

I'd appreciate it if you would quote some specific numbers here to help the rest of us see just what you mean by 'global warming' over the past 10 years.

In the meantime, I must check on the definitions of 'insubstantial', 'cooling', 'questionable', 'highly selective', 'not statistically significant', 'anti-scientific propaganda', 'wishful thinking', ...
48

SW,

P&K 24/04/2009 13:30:00
Suggest you look at:-

http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/sccs

Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage. Also look at the site for BioChar.
49

seanie,

24/04/2009 13:34:34
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3gl.txt

The HADCRU anomalies averaged over five year periods.

1994-1998: + 0.296
1999-2003: + 0.382
2004-2008: + 0.416

So the most recent five year period is warmer than the previous five years, which itself is warmer than the period before that.
50

seanie,

24/04/2009 13:34:46
The GISS anomalies;

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

The anomalies averaged over five year periods.

1994-1998: + 0.38
1999-2003: + 0.45
2004-2008: + 0.53

Again the most recent five year period is warmer than the previous five years, which itself is warmer than the period before that.
51

seanie,

24/04/2009 13:37:03
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/gtc2008.csv

The last decade of the 20th century averaged 0.268°C above the 61-90 baseline.

So far this century is averaging at 0.428°C above the baseline.

It a very safe bet that the first decade of the 21st century will end up the warmest since records began.
52

seanie,

24/04/2009 13:39:35
The scope for natural variability, year to year, is far greater than the underlying warming trend. Variability day to day and month to month is even greater than annual variability, making short term predictions HARDER than longer term ones. So deriving trends across short periods is essentially meaningless; even five year averages aren't necessarily going to show consistent warming. Natural events such as a La Nina or a major volcanic eruption could result in a significant temporary cooling that drives the average down. But even that would not be inconsistent with an underlying warming trend, because such effects are temporary.

The simplest way to filter out the 'noise' of natural variation and identify any trend is to average out temperatures in some way. There are various ways to do it, with varying degrees of complexity, but it's a perfectly straightforward and entirely valid way of interpreting the data that itself doesn't 'promote' any particular result. It just filters out the noise.

So, knowing that, look at the HADCRU and GISS graphs showing 'smoothed' or averaged temperatures.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/gtc2007.pdf

In both cases, is the average temperature (as represented by the smoothed average) higher now than ten years ago?

Yes it is.
53

seanie,

24/04/2009 13:41:01
The smoothed HADCRU average going back to 1988.

1988 - 0.122
1989 - 0.136
1990 - 0.149
1991 - 0.162
1992 - 0.177
1993 - 0.194
1994 - 0.215
1995 - 0.24
1996 - 0.267
1997 - 0.295
1998 - 0.323
1999 - 0.348
2000 - 0.37
2001 - 0.389
2002 - 0.403
2003 - 0.413
2004 - 0.419
2005 - 0.42
2006 - 0.419
2007 - 0.415
2008 - 0.411

You'll see it has dropped from the highpoint in 2005 but it's higher than the start of the century and the figures towards the end of the series are increasingly provisional. Given the temperature in 2008 was depressed by a strong La Nina, the smoothed anomaly will most likely be revised upwards over the next few years.
54

Lianachan,

Highlands 24/04/2009 13:44:37
Can carbon dodgers explain why the fact that data from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey missions in 2005 showed that the carbon dioxide "ice caps" near Mars's south pole had been diminishing for three summers in a row is related to anything we humans have been doing on Earth?
55

seanie,

24/04/2009 13:45:07
The natural scope for variation is far greater than the underlying warming trend, so identifying trends over short periods is fraught with difficulties since so much depends on the start and end point. Five year averages are a bit rough and ready but they're less sensitive to such noise.

Try it yourself. The data's been posted, all you need is a calculator or a bit or paper and a pencil. It's perfectly easy.

You'll find that the most recent five year period is warmer than the previous five years, which itself is warmer than the period before that, which in turn was warmer than the period before that.

The smoothed anomolies of HADCRU & GISS are more complex calculations but again there's nothing mysterious or underhand about smoothed averages. They're perfectly standard and acceptable means of filtering out 'noise' and don't promote any particular trend. They just make any trend, or absence of one, easier to discern.

And both HADCRU & GISS, which correlate well with the satellite data, show that smoothed average temperature as higher now than ten years ago, and higher than at the start of the century.
56

seanie,

24/04/2009 13:50:00
http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/climate-change/dn11642

Climate myths: Mars and Pluto are warming too

"There have been claims that warming on Mars and Pluto are proof that the recent warming on Earth is caused by an increase in solar activity, and not by greenhouses gases. But we can say with certainty that, even if Mars, Pluto or any other planets have warmed in recent years, it is not due to changes in solar activity."
57

seanie,

24/04/2009 13:50:17
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/12/17/222712/69

'Mars and Pluto are warming too'

"The only relevant factor the earth and Mars share is the sun, so if the warming were real and related, that would be the logical place to look. As it happens, the sun is being watched and measured carefully back here on earth, and it is not the primary cause of current climate change."
58

seanie,

24/04/2009 13:50:30
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=192

Global warming on Mars?

"Thus inferring global warming from a 3 Martian year regional trend is unwarranted. The observed regional changes in south polar ice cover are almost certainly due to a regional climate transition, not a global phenomenon, and are demonstrably unrelated to external forcing. There is a slight irony in people rushing to claim that the glacier changes on Mars are a sure sign of global warming, while not being swayed by the much more persuasive analogous phenomena here on Earth…"
59

seanie,

24/04/2009 13:50:43
http://royalsociety.org/page.asp?tip=1&id=6233

Misleading argument 6: ’Global warming is all to do with the sun’

"While there is evidence of a link between solar activity and some of the warming in the early 20th Century, measurements from satellites show that there has been very little change in underlying solar activity in the last 30 years there is even evidence of a detectable decline and so this cannot account for the recent rises we have seen in global temperatures."
60

connaughtboy,

stonehaven 24/04/2009 14:02:14
This must be so confusing for the Greenies. Last week the solution was nuclear power. This week it's coal (with CO2 sequestering). Surely they should be arguing for all nuclear?
61

connaughtboy,

stonehaven 24/04/2009 14:03:36
Oh no, not another thread ruined by the cutting and pasting of seannie.
62

Lianachan,

Highlands 24/04/2009 14:05:36
#62 "There is a slight irony in people rushing to claim that the glacier changes on Mars are a sure sign of global warming, while not being swayed by the much more persuasive analogous phenomena here on Earth"

That's missing my point, which was about the CAUSE of any warming.
63

,

24/04/2009 14:11:08
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
64

connaughtboy,

stonehaven 24/04/2009 14:11:26
48 seannie

Temperature trends over a few decades is simply not statistically meaningful. You need to go back tens, if not hundreds of thousands of years. The Vostok ice core data demonstrates that.
65

seanie,

24/04/2009 14:35:23
A time period required to identify a statistically meaningful trend depends on the size of the trend in relation to variability. The warming trend identified over the last few decades is indeed statistically significant and requires an explanation. The observed increase in CO2 due to human activity provides that explanation.
66

connaughtboy,

stonehaven 24/04/2009 15:12:09
69 Nonsense. Climate trends over decates is statistically meaningless.
67

connaughtboy,

stonehaven 24/04/2009 15:13:40
69 I notice that you avoid the evidence from Vostok at all costs. Could thi be because it doesn't fit with the hypothesis of AGW?
68

seanie,

24/04/2009 15:21:00
Hardly. The VOSTOK ice cores support the idea that the curtrent warming trend is due to the increased levels of atmospheric CO2 due to human activity.
69

Yok Finney,

Ross-shire 24/04/2009 15:21:20
With some confidence, we can read that the Earth is entering a natural cycle of cooling. The Electric Universe model has made successful predictions for decades whereas mainstream physics (and the non-credible Big Bang concept) flouders with evey new satellite photograph and data. Make up your own mind!

Not so say that carbon capture and cleaner combustion aren't worthwhile pursuits. But the policy of burning the hull of the planet (including nuclear fission) should be part of human infancy not our direction.
70

seanie,

24/04/2009 15:28:07
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/co2-in-ice-cores/

"At least three careful ice core studies have shown CO2 starts to rise about 800 years (600-1000 years) after Antarctic temperature during glacial terminations. These terminations are pronounced warming periods that mark the ends of the ice ages that happen every 100,000 years or so.

Does this prove that CO2 doesn't cause global warming? The answer is no."
71

seanie,

24/04/2009 15:28:19
http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/climate-change/dn11659

'Climate myths: Ice cores show CO2 increases lag behind temperature rises, disproving the link to global warming'

'The ice ages show that temperature can determine CO2 as well as CO2 driving temperature. Some sceptics – not scientists – have seized upon this idea and are claiming that the relation is one way, that temperature determines CO2 levels but CO2 levels do not affect temperature.

To repeat, the evidence that CO2 is a greenhouse gas depends mainly on physics, not on the correlation with past temperature, which tells us nothing about cause and effect. And while the rises in CO2 a few hundred years after the start of interglacials can only be explained by rising temperatures, the full extent of the temperature increases over the following 4000 years can only be explained by the rise in CO2 levels.'
72

seanie,

24/04/2009 15:28:30
http://royalsociety.org/page.asp?tip=1&id=6231

Misleading argument 3: ’rises in CO2 occur after global warming, not before’

"It is true that the fluctuations in temperatures that caused the ice ages were initiated by changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun which, in turn, drove changes in levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This is backed up by data from ice cores which show that rises in temperature came first, and were then followed by rises in levels of carbon dioxide up to several hundred years later. The reasons for this, although not yet fully understood, are partly because the oceans emit carbon dioxide as they warm up and absorb it when they cool down and also because soil releases greenhouse gases as it warms up. These increased levels of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere then further enhanced warming,
creating a positive feedback'.

In contrast to this natural process, we know that the recent steep increase in the level of carbon dioxide - some 30 per cent in the last 100 years - is not the result of natural factors. This is because, by chemical analysis, we can tell that the majority of this carbon dioxide has come from the burning of fossil fuels. And, as set out in 'misleading argument 1 ', carbon dioxide from human sources is almost certainly responsible for most of the warming over the last 50 years. There is much evidence that backs up this explanation and none that conflicts with it.

Warming caused by greenhouse gases from human sources could lead to the release of more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere by stimulating natural processes and creating a "positive feedback", as described above."
73

seanie,

24/04/2009 15:28:43
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/myths/3.html

"The bottom line is that temperature and CO2 concentrations are linked. In recent ice ages, natural changes in the climate, such as those due to orbit changes, led to cooling of the climate system. This caused a fall in CO2 concentrations which weakened the greenhouse effect and amplified the cooling. Now the link between temperature and CO2 is working in the opposite direction. Human-induced increases in CO2 are driving the greenhouse effect and amplifying the recent warming."
74

seanie,

24/04/2009 15:29:11
http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.org/ccm/1007_co2.htm

CO2 as a Feedback and Forcing in the Climate System

"While the lag between temperature and greenhouse gas changes in the paleoclimate record is important in understanding the function of greenhouse gasses in the Earth's climate, and has helped in estimating the effects of CO2 concentrations on radiative forcing, it in no way discredits the conventional knowledge that CO2 is forcing recent changes in the Earth's climate."
75

seanie,

24/04/2009 15:29:20
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm

"It seemed that rises or falls in carbon dioxide levels had not initiated the glacial cycles.In fact most scientists had long since abandoned that hypothesis. In the 1960s, painstaking studies had shown that subtle shifts in our planet's orbit around the Sun (called "Milankovitch cycles") set the timing of ice ages. The amount of sunlight that fell in a given latitude and season varied predictably over millenia, altering how long snow ands sea ice lingered in the spring, which crucially affected how much sunlight the surface absorbed. The fact that carbon dioxide levels lagged behind the orbital effect should have been no surprise, since a change in the temperature would change the gas level. For one thing, warmer oceans would evaporate out more gas. For another, as Arctic tundra warmed up it would likewise emit CO2 and methane. The ice cores now showed, as theorists had predicted since the 19th century, that a powerful feedback cycle was amplifying the effect of the cyclical changes in sunlight. Even a small change in the gas level would bring further changes in the global heat balance, which would in turn alter the gas level, which... and so forth. This suggested how tiny shifts in the Earth’s orbit had set the timing of the enormous swings of glacial cycles.

Or, more ominously, how a change in the gas level initiated by humanity might be amplified through a temperature feedback loop. The ancient ice ages were the reverse of our current situation, where humanity was initiating the change by adding greenhouse gases. As the gas level rose, temperature would rise with a time lag — although only a few decades, not centuries, for the rates of change were now enormously faster than the orbital shifts that brought ice ages"
76

seanie,

24/04/2009 15:29:34
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/12/22/231145/76

"The current understanding of those cycles is that changes in orbital parameters (the Milankovich and other cycles) caused greater amounts of summer sunlight to fall in the northern hemisphere. This is a small forcing, but it caused ice to retreat in the north, which changed the albedo. This change -- reducing the amount of white, reflective ice surface -
led to further warmth, in a feedback effect. Some number of centuries after that process started, CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere began to rise, which amplified the warming trend even further as an additional feedback mechanism...

...So it is correct that CO2 did not trigger the warmings, but it definitely contributed to them -- and according to climate theory and model experiments, greenhouse gas forcing was the dominant factor in the magnitude of the ultimate change."
77

david hill,

24/04/2009 15:33:18
Carbon capture is making a very big problem indeed for future generations to come and where these generations will look on these decisions as inept thinking of the highest standing, just as the last 12 years of New Labour.
Sudden leaching and escape of vast quantities of carbon dioxide into the sea and atmosphere would be catastrophic for all those countries living near to the leak, and for that matter the whole world. As this carbon would be under significant pressure, there are no guarantees of long-term stability forever. Movements in the sea bed and tectonic plates, which are constantly shifting, could quite easily rupture and shatter a pressure vessel. In this respect, earthquakes have no respect for anything. Fish life would be destroyed on an unimaginable scale, not to say human life. There is also the future possibility of terrorist or aggressive attacks that could hold the country to ransom. A strategic bomb could make release inevitable. Indeed, the release of killer gases to human and living organs based upon nature, would be like creating a world in an instant of immense pollution. In this respect possibly the release of decades of life-killing pollutants within an instant.
No one can guarantee anything forever and that is the big hole in this strategy here. Indeed, nothing ever has as the history of the world has shown. Why is it therefore that government always listens to the biggest lobby groups, the rich and powerful who will reap hundreds of billions out of this eventual disastrous state for others to address and solve (if they can) in the future.
It is another example that 'New Labour' has rushed out to be seen as saviours but where, par for the course, they will dispatch possibly millions to a devastating state of affairs. When therefore will they learn that when corporates are involved, profits are even above human life itself. New Labour say they are leading the world. But my question is what world. It appears to be one of increasing globa
78

david hill,

24/04/2009 15:34:50
(Cont.)
But my question is what world. It appears to be one of increasing global problems for the future and not saving humanity now.

Dr David Hill
World Innovation Foundation Charity
United Kingdom
P O Box A60, Huddersfield, HD1 1XJ, United Kingdom
Switzerland
The World Innovation Foundation Charity
Advokaturbüro Gubler Walther Leuch
Marktgasse 38, Postfach, CH-3000 Bern 7, Switzerland
Kazakhstan
WIF-KZ Office
Dyman Hotel, 16th Floor, 2A, Turan Avenue, Astana, 010000, ROK

79

El Franko,

24/04/2009 17:13:03
Oh dear, what have I done? The brainded seanie can still do cut-n-paste, and just got in some extensive practice. But more loonies have been triggered. I'm going to crawl away and hope they find somewhere else to go over the weekend. Maybe asteroids carrying awful diseases. Maybe the earth's core solidifying (what we shall call 'breakaway solidification' - the angular momentum step change shockwave will cause whole continents to shift. I tell you, not a building will survive it. Don't listen to the deniers. Send money now.)
80

All Politicians are the same,

Scotland 24/04/2009 17:17:01
Surely this is part of a balanced energy production strategy of nuclear traditional and renewables.
81

Yok Finney,

Ross-shire 24/04/2009 17:47:39
CO2 is a natural product on the surface of the planet, and if you take the Gaia theory, there is a negative feedback mechanism to handle it. Just as our Electic Sun maintians a steady output of of solar radiation in the visible and heating spectrum. Not that there are other energy outbursts as you'd expect.

CFCs, nitrogen and sulpher oxides are not usually natural to the surface and do alot of damage locally and globally.

The greenhouse model starts from a dubious (CO2) baseline and makes no further sense.

This planet is now cooling and we should think about reclaiming vast areas of desertification - due to ignorance.

Building a new generation of coal fired plants is a fixation, but the people involved are the last people to change their ways. They get paid for it!
82

SINGAPOREAN,

singapore 24/04/2009 18:40:47
We seem to have some folk with scientific knowledge contributing today. And even THEY can't agree on whether carbon dioxide is responsible for global climate change. Unfortunately our politicians are mostly clueless when it comes to science. And if not clueless then they are motivated to do what is to their own advantage rather than what may be objectively desirable. Whatever decisions are taken we can't win against nature. In fact, according to the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics, we can't break even. So no attempt to alleviate the effects of an unbalanced use of natural resources is going to succeed. Unless something can be done to reduce the human population and its outrageous environmental demands I'm afraid the world as we know it is doomed.
83

Yok Finney,

Ross-shire 24/04/2009 19:10:15
The Newton-Einstein gravitational model presumes we can back-predict from current data to the previous state of the Solar System. Whereas, in fact, it can't explain the current orbits! Or galactic rotation for which plasma physics has good answers for. Plasma is 99.9% of the observed Universe and the structure and mathematics of it have gained physicists (natural philosophers) Nobel prizes -- and the cold shoulder.

There are plenty resources for the the planet's human population if we were wise to it!
84

seanie,

24/04/2009 20:20:57
Remember...

...the last five years were warmer than the five before, which in turn were warmer than the five before that, which themselves were warmeer than the five before.

When average temperature goes up, that's called warming.
85

The Strategist,

24/04/2009 20:55:10
Jeez....... Do u lot ever read posts.. As I said at #30 there is a real alternative to sequestration.

Don't bury the stuff use it by processing it with Algae based reactors back into liquid fuel.

86

seanie,

24/04/2009 23:19:12
That sounds great!

Would you like to buy a bridge?
87

The Strategist,

24/04/2009 23:41:59
Bridge? What colour is it?
88

seanie,

25/04/2009 08:39:30
What colour would you like?

 

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