IT MAY be an embarrassment, as John Beattie says, that there are no Scots in the Lions Squad for the Test today, but, sadly, it's scarcely a surprise. For one thing it's pretty clear that, despite Ian McGeechan's routine denials, the composition of the starting XV was more or less determined some time ago.
For another, Mike Blair and Ross Ford, selected for the tour only as substitutes for injured players, would have had to play outstandingly well to course their way into the squad; and neither has quite done that.
Blair has been unfortunate to have
been behind the two worst performances by the Lions pack so far, and has rarely been given quick clean ball – without which it is hard for any scrum-half to shine. All the same, even his warmest admirers like myself have to admit that he hasn't yet recovered the form which saw him in the short-list of five for the nomination of "2008 World Player of the Year". Had he done so, he would surely have been in the Test XV.
Today offers the Lions their best chance of winning a Test. Not only is it the only one of the three to be played at sea level rather than at altitude, but the Springboks are short of match practice, on account of the decision to keep them in a training camp these last weeks.
That said, it will be a remarkable effort if the Lions win. There are two reasons to fear they won't, and both are cogent.
First, if you go through the two starting XVs and ask how many Lions might be included in a composite side, you are unlikely in all honesty to come up with more than three or four: Lee Byrne, Brian O'Driscoll, Gethin Jenkins and perhaps, on present form, Tommy Bowe. This suggests that South Africa are a much better side, man for man.
Secondly, the Lions have been outplayed at the breakdown in almost every match so far. The one exception was the game against the Transvaal Golden Lions, who were shockingly poor.
So, given the quality of the Springboks' back-row it is very difficult to see the Lions coming off anything but second best at the breakdown; and, as Scotland have discovered all too often, if you can't dominate there, your try-scoring opportunities are rare and you will win very few matches. Moreover the decision to omit Martyn Williams has deprived the Lions of their best chance of competing there.
The Springbok line-out is superior, though the Lions should mostly secure their own ball. But, given the quality of Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha, they will be wary of kicking for touch, and this will allow the very dangerous Springbok back-three – Francois Steyn, J P Pietersen and Bryan Habana to run the ball back at them. Kicking from hand will have to be very accurate to prevent this.
The Lions may have an advantage at the set scrum (though this will depend on how it is refereed) and perhaps at goal-kicking, though I would be more confident of this if Ronan O'Gara rather than Stephen Jones was at No10. All in all, despite the individual brilliance of O'Driscoll, Byrne and Bowe, the prospects look gloomy, with the Lions being outpaced up front and the backs living on short commons. I hope I'm proved wrong.
Meanwhile, for us, there has been as much interest in the Scotland A Team's performance in Romania and the under-20s in the Junior World Cup. The A team have a fair chance of winning their tournament by beating France A who, after starting well, struggled to beat the hosts and were in the end lucky to come away with a win.
At the moment of writing the team hasn't been announced, and it will be interesting to see who is selected at fly-half. David Blair apparently had a very good game against Uruguay, who proved tough opposition as was to be expected. Ruaridh Jackson has been regarded in recent months as the man to challenge Phil Godman next season, but Blair is the more composed player, the better tactical kicker and passer of the ball, more capable than Jackson at this stage of the latter's development of controlling the game in the manner of Ronan O'Gara.
The under-20s did well to beat Fiji, who will certainly have been a physically more formidable side. Their rather heavy defeat by England was, sadly, only to be expected. We have long realised that we are always likely to be at a disadvantage in age-group rugby simply because we have fewer players to choose from. Consequently – and one says this without disrespect – players can get into our age-group sides without having had to work as hard as those in countries where there is fiercer competition for places.
Watching part of the match between the New Zealand and Australian juniors, one was struck by the size and power of the players. The New Zealanders may be termed "Baby All Blacks" – some babies!
That game incidentally was notable for the speed and efficiency displayed by both teams at the breakdown, with the ball coming back with exemplary speed. It would be nice to think the Lions had been watching and got the message.
