Eddie Barnes: Salmond looks resigned to tough decisions on independence

NOW that Wendy Alexander says she isn't going to quit over her donations woes, it seems that Planet Holyrood can finally move on from talk of political resignations.

But let's dwell on the subject just one more time. What about the prospects, after last week's events, of Alex Salmond's resignation as First Minister?

It doesn't seem the most likely eventuality in a week that has seen Salmond's minority government edge out his opponents to pass his first budget (by 64 votes to, er, one); nor in a week when Alexander has had to fight off claims of being both a fool (over the budget) and a knave (over her expenses). But hear me out.

Salmond's threat of resignation last week may have been an entirely empty gesture and one taken, as Labour MSP Iain Gray rightly said, "behind the safety of deals that were already done". But it has also now set a precedent. Salmond has effectively told the Scottish people this: that if and when there is an issue of sufficient importance to the future of his government, he will not hesitate to put his own position on the line. Clearly there aren't that many issues of importance greater than whether or not a government is given leave to spend our money, but there does seem to me to be another rather large one, and it is coming up rather soon.

Legislation for a referendum on independence will probably have to go before the Parliament in the autumn of next year under Salmond's plans, clearing the way for the SNP's promised referendum in 2010. While there is some enthusiasm among the Unionist parties to call his bluff and back it, we have to assume at present that they remain too timid to grasp Salmond's challenge. Consequently, it appears, for the time being, that Salmond's referendum will be voted down in Parliament and that he will be denied his chance to put the big question to the people.

He then has to resign, doesn't he? Or is the budget of the devolved Scottish Government more important to the SNP these days than the historic quest for independence? I don't know, so I asked around a bit. One of Salmond's aides poo-pooed the idea when I broached it last week. Rather, the government would, in such circumstances, "bank" the parliament's rejection of the referendum, pointing out that the opposition MSPs were denying the right of a nation for self-determination. They would then stay in government and build ever more support for a referendum following the now supposedly inevitable SNP triumph in 2011.

Of course, Salmond's wily advisers are never going to signal that he would resign over the referendum bill more than a year before it comes before parliament. The last politician to pre-announce his departure was Tony Blair and look what happened to him. So, despite their denials, there is still a strong possibility that last week's fake resignation was simply a dry run for the real thing.

Think about it from Salmond's point of view. The coalition of the SNP is sustained by its unbending loyalty to the cause of Scottish independence. We learnt how much last year when Salmond refused to drop the referendum as the price of a coalition with the Liberals. Would Salmond countenance keeping the party in power if it had shown itself unable to deliver its prime purpose? Furthermore, resignation would surely be the only way to maintain the credibility upon which Salmond's reputation as a straight-dealer has been built. Not to resign would simply be to place himself alongside all the other political leaders he so despises for, as he sees it, having compromised their beliefs simply to stay in power.

And what's more, as always with Salmond, principle goes hand in hand with crafty politics. As with last week's events, if he were to resign, there would be two potential courses for the Parliament to take. Either it would dissolve and an extraordinary election would take place, or the Parliament would vote in a new First Minister. In such a circumstance, where the SNP has stood down, that would probably mean Labour taking over. What does Salmond have to fear from either eventuality? Does anyone believe that, in the current political climate, the SNP would not come out best?

So here's my prediction: last week's events suggest that, if the independence referendum is voted down by Parliament, Salmond will go, meaning an election ahead of the planned date in 2011. Salmond is the kind of skilled politician who thinks several years in advance so I wonder whether this has been the plan all along. Either way, I think we should be told.