HAS New Labour jumped the shark? The phrase comes from an episode of Happy Days 30 years ago, when the great Fonz bizarrely took it upon himself to water-ski over a huge fish.
HAS New Labour jumped the shark? The phrase comes from an episode of Happy Days 30 years ago, when the great Fonz bizarrely took it upon himself to water-ski over a huge fish.
From that moment on, the show just didn't seem the same; hence the phr
ase. Last week, we had a reminder of New Labour Mark One, with Tony Blair back in town, reminiscing about the old days with Alastair Campbell. It was all dealt with humorously and reflectively – and there was the nub. Increasingly, New Labour feels like something that is already historicised.
The main battle – on Iraq – is over. Films have been made, books written, judgments passed. And while New Labour Mark Two is still there, preaching the same creed, it's like a soap opera where all the original cast members have left, replaced by another lot who talk the same but aren't.
This dying of the light is a factor in the Labour Government's current plight, but it can be fought against. John Major can attest to that, when – despite the odds – he managed to win the 1992 general election. What is worrying Labour MPs and ministers most this weekend is whether or not their current leader is up to it.
Murmurs of discontent were evident at last week's Scottish Labour conference in Aviemore where, despite a strong speech by Brown, there was plenty of head-shaking about the lack of direction from the top. Troublingly for Brown, they come from both wings of the party.
The Blairites' concerns are long aired. They accuse Brown of having no strategy and failing to nurture the historic coalition of voters who handed power to Labour. The so-called 'GMTV voters' – the lower middle class and skilled working class people in the south-east of England – now look like turning in their thousands to the Tories under David Cameron. Alistair Darling's miserly Budget has done little to improve their mood.
Last week showed that those on the left of the party are unhappy too – and don't mind showing it. Today, as the new tax year begins, the 10p tax rate will disappear in a move which, according to the Institute of Fiscal Studies, will leave many of those earning around £7,000 a year about £200 worse off. At a private meeting of MPs last Monday, Brown was assailed by complaints about the change. One group of backbenchers felt emboldened enough to table a critical Early Day Motion, with claims of around 100 supporters.
Unlike Blair, Brown has always offered hope to the left, but, as a result, they now appear to resent him more than his predecessor when he fails to "deliver". Consequently, Brown – whose political strategy is to try to appeal to as much of the political ground as possible – appears to have achieved the exact reverse of the form of triangulation he sought: instead of being supported, he is being attacked from all sides.
The previous Prime Minister revelled in facing such odds, and could turn it into a strength. It was Blair who struck the idea of a "masochism strategy" when the entire country was demanding his blood in 2003 in the run up to war. Contrariness and obstinacy were made into a virtue. "It's worse than that," he told delegates at one conference when explaining his New Labour politics, "I actually believe it."
Does Brown? It seems astonishing that 11 years into a New Labour government, we can still ask such a question about one of the movement's principal architects. But the suspicion lingers that Brown still can't make up his mind about what exactly is his vision. Consequently, the Third Way now no longer seems like a coherent political plan; rather, it resembles a hazily marked path meandering between the first and second ways, with no clear destination.
Brown's lack of direction is all the odder because, despite current polls, I suspect that many people in Britain are still prepared to be led by him. Those 11 years of plenty have handed the Prime Minister a deep reservoir of public trust. And while Cameron has put the Tories back on track, comparisons between him and mid-90s New Labour are exaggerated.
Only one certainty can be gleaned from the last 12 months of polling – the people are uncertain about Brown. They have not given up on him, but they will not wait forever. The Prime Minister needs to find and set out his vision quickly or he will be trapped by an image not of his making, and with only his own indecision to blame.
The full article contains 810 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.
